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I'll accept Meta's frontier AI demise if they're in their current position a year from now. People killed Google prematurely too (remember Bard?), because we severely underestimate the catch-up power bought with ungodly piles of cash.

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And boy, with the $250m offers to people, Meta is definitely throwing ungodly piles of cash at the problem.

But Apple is waking up too. So is Google. It's absolutely insane, the amount of money being thrown around.

It's insane numbers like that that give me some concern for a bubble. Not because AI hits some dead end, but due to a plateau that shifts from aggressive investment to passive-but-steady improvement.

catching up gets exponentially harder as time passes. way harder to catch up to current models than it was to the first iteration of gpt-4

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