U.S. fires statistics chief after soft jobs report | Hacker News Reader

U.S. fires statistics chief after soft jobs report

politico.com

172 pointsJumpCrisscross103 comments

From 2022, "Turkey’s Erdogan Fires Statistics Chief After Record Inflation":

* https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-fires-...

* https://archive.is/https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/tur...

Turkey is a good example here.

Erdogan had also fired the Central Bank Chief when he refused to lower the interest rates: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48891658

and then kept firing: https://www.reuters.com/article/world/middle-east/turkeys-er...

https://www.reuters.com/article/business/the-last-straw-why-...

His stated aversion to interest rates is religious and it causes economic divide.

IMO, US might be on the same path albeit slower. This might become a revolving door if the calculation/facts from other sources continues to be bad. And once Jerome Powell leaves interest rates cuts will be pushed through making things worse.

Worth to point out that he then manages to lower the interest rates by force, and then, surprise, inflation skyrockets.

> IMO, US might be on the same path albeit slower.

Hasn't the US been speed running this for the past six months?

From the excellent "Why Nations Fail" by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson:

> An example of what could happen if you took your job too seriously, rather than successfully second-guessing what the Communist Party wanted, is provided by the Soviet census of 1937. As the returns came in, it became clear that they would show a population of about 162 million, far less than the 180 million Stalin had anticipated and indeed below the figure of 168 million that Stalin himself announced in 1934. The 1937 census was the first conducted since 1926, and therefore the first one that followed the mass famines and purges of the early 1930s. The accurate population numbers reflected this. Stalin's response was to have those who organized the census arrested and sent to Siberia or shot. He ordered another census, which took place in 1939. This time the organizers got it right; they found that the population was actually 171 million.

> Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes

Immediately attempts to manipulate them for political purposes.

Every accusation is an admission.

What puzzles me is after all the accusations of "stealing the election", why did people not put the election results under extra scrutiny and demand access to details of the voting machines anti-tampering technology? Trump has said things that hinted at Musk maybe altering voting machines/counts, so why has this not been followed up?

He will only look into to it if the results don't go his way.

It is also hilarious that during the Biden admin "numbers were initially high and then revised down" was seen as fraud to make the Biden admin look good while now "numbers were initially high and then revised down" is seen as fraud to make the Trump admin look bad. Ridiculous.

Discussions (42 points, 7 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44760734

(23 points, 12 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44760951

& https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44761019 (53 points, 19 comments)

This is beyond reason ... killing the messenger is never acceptable!

“It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grammes a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be REDUCED to twenty grammes a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it.”

He's lost a substantial part of his base, and now appears to be losing his mind.

I highly doubt that.

The part of "small govt." is reaching into all sorts of businesses and directing them what to do and what not to do. (Amazon, Google, Apple, even the Smithsonian !)

What did they direct Apple, Google, and Amazon to do?

Trump directed Amazon to stop displaying itemized bill with tariff rates. Amazon folded in a few hours.

Trump has directed Apple to start producing equipment in America multiple times.

Trump has directed Google to refine its search results and AI results in line with Party views.

Edit : Trump also directed Apple and Google to stop hiring Indians.

Also directed pretty much every company to drop DEI.

Also, the deals he is trying to do with countries are... weird to say the least. Often it requires the country to buy Boeing airplanes. With Japan, it was 100.

Like, how do you even manage to meet that goal if the country don't have a state-owned airline? It feels for me, Trump thinks every country is either a dictatorship or a state capitalism.

look at his opinion on h1bs flipping. its a cover

Lost part of his base? What because of the Epstein stuff? You new here or something? If history is a guide, any drop in support among the base is temporary. They just need a few more weeks to get comfortable with the mental gymnastics they’ll use to spin this to themselves as being Hunter Biden or Hillary Clinton’s fault and then Trump’s base support will be right back where it was.

He has certainly angered a lot of the Miami folk I work around in the office. Latins here were very much pro-trump and now it seems they are just bitter about his presidency because of the the iran move, now supporting the ukraine war, these are viewed as an extension of the "swamp". i've even heard more than once that he is now "king of the swamp" from people who were generally favorable of him over anyone else(not nutjob magas, just didn't like kamala).

We as a country are so unserious. I just can't anymore.

An April 2025 episode from Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, "Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying":

> Gathering official economic data is a huge process in the best of times. But a bunch of different things have now combined to make that process even harder. People aren't responding to surveys like they used to. Survey responses have also become a lot more divided along political lines. And at the same time, the Trump administration wants to cut back on government spending, and the worry is that fewer official resources will make tracking the US economy even harder for statistical departments that were already stretched. Bill Beach was commissioner of labor statistics and head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics during Trump's first presidency and also during President Biden's. On this episode, we talk to him about the importance of official data and why the rails for economic data are deteriorating so quickly.

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfgpqVixeIw

* https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/some-of-americas-most-...

* https://archive.is/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...

William ("Bill") Beach was the head of the BLS of the before the just-fired head; he was Trump-appointed and Heritage Foundation fellow, and not a fan of the firing:

> The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau. For a full statement opposing this move, read: https://www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025/8/1/statement-on-c...

* https://twitter.com/BeachWW453/status/1951376029060055506#m

Also, from 2023, "Houston, We Have a Data Problem":

> The concerns are laid bare in a recently published report from the National Academy of Sciences. It includes a table showing that response rates to household surveys for basic information such as the current population survey (CPS) undertaken by the Census Bureau and the housing portion of CPI (a crucial input for overall inflation) have drifted down dramatically in recent years. The housing survey, for instance, used to get responses from about two-thirds of those surveyed. It now gets just half.

* https://archive.is/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletter...

This is USSR / North Korea stuff

I struggle to believe they're as bad as our propaganda wants us to believe.

It's complicated. I've lived in an eastern European communist country, escaped as a political refugee, and then lived in several western countries.

Communist countries at least could house everyone. They more or less had to, because most of them are too cold in winter for the homeless to survive. Education was generally free and quite good. Etc...

But... my dad was dragged off one day and beaten black and blue by the secret police for engaging in "anti-communist capitalist activities". He was tutoring students after school for a bit of cash.

Meanwhile, in the world's richest third-world country, the United States, people with the wrong skin colour are being dragged out of their homes and thrown into concentration camps in another country. Breaking a leg can bankrupt you.

You hear stories of NK refugees hating their new life in SK because it's too competitive and they can't keep up with the constant go-go-go business culture.

I also saw smuggled(!) videos of children in NK picking up individual grains of rice that fell in between the railway tracks at the local shunting yard. So you know... hustle culture, or that.

I personally remember driving to a shopping centre and standing in line outside right before it opened so my Mom could buy me rain boots. Her friend that worked there had called her at 6am telling her to hurry because they had them in stock for the first (and only) time that year.

But... on my recent holiday to the US I was shocked to see how tense police officers looked compared to anywhere else in the world. I witnessed a traffic accident, and the cops that turned up looked like they were ready to draw their weapons and start blasting at any second. They were all kitted out in body armour and had their hands on their weapons at all times. Scanning the crowd non-stop. Where I live, cops are friendly and will high-five my kid and pose for selfies. The US feels more like an outdoor prison to me.

Cops in the US are given military hardware in many cases and are trained to see anyone as a threat, an opponent. And there are enough criminal f-heads in any state and region to kinda justify that in the aggregate. We're well-armed, and there are a lot of nut jobs. But not the majority by any means.

Doesn't the USA have more guns per capita than nations at war?

> I witnessed a traffic accident, and they cops that turned up looked like they were ready to draw their weapons

Traffic stops are one of the most high risk situations police officers are involved in. I imagine traffic accidents are up there with it. The US also has a road rage problem topped off by never knowing who is armed or who keeps a revolver in the glove box

I have a lead foot sometimes, and I've had a gun waved (but not pointed, thankfully) at me at least twice that I'm aware of in recent years (Houston area)

You're repeating the propaganda that is used to put cops on edge and make them trigger happy. There is a long list of jobs that are more dangerous than cop in the US. They hype themselves up that they're in danger all the time and citizens pay the price.

1659447091 did not compare Police Officer’s jobs with other jobs but merely pointed out that traffic stops are dangerous for them. Imagine if part of the job involved a 0.3% possibility of getting killed, how would you approach that part of the job?

> traffic stops are dangerous for them

Traffic stops in the United States are dangerous for them.

In Australia, they're more likely to be killed during a traffic stop because they're hit by cars than getting shot at.

yes, the thread is about US along with any other which discusses police brutality or police killing own citizens :)

I don't think they were misunderstanding that, just trying to give perspective.

But they're not actually that dangerous, I don't think LEO even break like top 10 most dangerous jobs.

The problem is that LEOs have a separate, extremely lenient, set of standards they're judged on. We don't tolerate mistakes at other jobs, much less deadly mistakes or mistakes that cost millions in lawsuits. Hell, the McDonald's cashier is getting insta-fired if their drawer is 1 dollar short.

Lol, they risk having to abuse their power and face no consequence?

Try showing a palestinian flag or an anti monarchy piece of paper in the very civilised and liberal UK and see what happens to you in the totally free western world.

Nothing?

https://news.sky.com/story/police-arrest-palestine-action-pr...

There's no evidence in that article that anyone was arrested for flying the flag of Palestine. It's about protests in favour of a specific proscribed group. I'm as pro-Palestine as they come but linking to that article to support the claims made above is just dishonest.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/abolish-the-mona...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-62883713

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-14/uk-anti-monarchy-prot...

There's only one person here being dishonest and it surely isn't me :)

You made a claim of X and then backed up up with evidence of Y happening. Are you calling me dishonest for pointing that out?

Perhaps reading the claim i made would have helped.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44765372

I read it and responded accordingly. Your point was about the flying of a flag in the UK. You followed this up with an article about people being arrested for supporting a proscribed organisation, not for the flying that flag which we both know many people are doing every day

If you would like to make a further point then please do so.

> anti monarchy piece of paper

No, you clearly did not read and insist in refusing to read.

Chatgpt would have done a better job at this.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8de6rq37v5o

This is a statement of fact that you're referring to as propaganda.

It's funny and telling you believe we don't get propaganda. They are doing a really good job!

But think about it… according to our media russia was out of weapons and food 3 years ago. How did ukraine not invade moscow if the russians are all dead?

Could it be… because it was propaganda?

It's funny and telling you believe we don't get propaganda.

No one said that.

They are doing a really good job!

Who is they in your scenario here?

Are you disputing that this person was fired? The difference is always facts and evidence. What facts and evidence do you have to present?

Ukraine didn't invade moscow → the constant stream of news telling us how russia was defeated 3 years ago was propaganda.

Is it clear enough?

This story is about trump firing the statistics chief because he didn't like the data.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

No you argued against me on "we don't have propaganda"

This never happened.

It's USA stuff now. The voters spoke. Remember, they won't need to vote again. That's the promise.

> That's the promise

[Citation needed]

July 28, 2024:

> Trump said: "Christians, get out and vote, just this time. "You won't have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what, it will be fixed, it will be fine, you won't have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians."

Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-tells-christians-they...

And the video: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Y7b4r1FIG-A

He's talking to people who don't normally pay attention to politics, but are now because of the economic problems they're facing. He's saying once he fixes those problems, they can go back to not paying attention to politics.

Are U.S. voters really that stupid?

Yes. Education, critical thinking are not a priority.

You will note that business leaders, especially the tech ones like marca, Thiel, Zuckerberg, cheer this on too.

Since they've been told climate change is a hoax, republican voters in the US have needed an explanation for the dramatic increase in the frequency/severity of severe weather events. They have flocked to the conspiracy theory that Democrats are using geo engineering to manipulate the weather for political ends and to make climate change "real".

Lest you dismiss this as the folly of the very online, states are passing laws against weather manipulation in response.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-p...

So uh yeah, really that stupid. At least enough of them to be statistically relevant in a two-party system.

They worry about, and elect political representatives that try to act on, schoolchildren that identify as cats and have litter boxes in classrooms for them. Rather lacking in any sense whatsoever, just repeating random lies like truth. On the other side of the political spectrum, they might also get up in arms because federal officials in remote areas use horses to travel in rough terrain, off road. It's not limited to one side,though I'd say quite tilted.

> He's talking to people who don't normally pay attention to politics ... He's saying once he fixes those problems, they can go back to not paying attention to politics.

From 2015:

> Based on my research, Christians are much more likely to vote than non-Christians.

https://scholarworks.sfasu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&...

I didn't understand anyone voting for that in particular.

Policy questions of all sorts, we can all discuss: that's called democracy.

But when someone promises to end your participation, you have surrendered all agency to them which has never worked out well in history.

The voters clearly voted for Trump to do whatever he wants. They voted for him to thoroughly realign the government to follow his policy and his narrative, to root out the "deep state". Obviously anyone who publishes numbers that look bad is trying to undermine him. How many of his voters disagree with this agenda?

Not to defend him but he wasn't saying there wouldn't be another election or and end to participatory democracy, only that on the certain issues he was speaking about he would make such heavy changes that it would be completely done within this term and no future president would have to worry about it.

So completely done that it can't be undone.

Also, their tactic has been to accuse the other side of the thing they're going to do. So, what's up with counting the vote now? You don't need to vote if it's rigged for you.

>hub-center steering,

well I mean, the choices war to have a Stalinist style strongman to pull things like this, vs a Marxist style / "Committee of Public Safety" type power cabal scapegoating all things white, hetero, male, and nativist. Say what you will about Trump but he heard the people crying out while the other side was deaf.

Has been for a very long time. Consider the Rule of Seven[1] against the historical data.

[1] https://www.brainbok.com/guide/pm-study-notes/rule-of-seven-...

I voted for Trump and am not a fan of this. He's been doing a ton of terrible stuff the past few weeks. Very disappointing. Definitely liked the first few months he was in office.

The job numbers that he doesn't like? They're from the first few months he was in office.

Sure that's fine. It looked like we were getting a downturn of some sort this year no matter what the government did anyway just based off the debt term structure.

Don't fire people for reporting data though.

Are you kidding? This is the type of thing Tr*mp has always done. He occupied the office before, remember? I swear no one remembers the disaster that was 2016-2020. I don't know how anyone could forget. Historians ranked him the 3rd worst presidential term ever.

The mental gymnastic of a MAGA supporter. Shocked by the guy who wouldn't accept that he was wrong about the weather and drew a new path with a sharpie. These guys don't like the weather for Chrissake and blame the "other side"!

> downturn of some sort this year no matter what the government did anyway just based off the debt term structure

But I guess not far from the mental gymnastic of "this is not happening due to flip flopping on tariffs".

I am sure as things get worse many people will use this same excuse of "But I didn't know he was going to do this" excuse to distance themselves for the mess which is coming.

For now yay! for massaged data going forward.

> It looked like we were getting a downturn of some sort this year no matter what the government did anyway just based off the debt term structure.

Who was predicting a downturn in 2025? What predictions of a downturn were being published in December 2024?

The fact of the matter is is that the numbers at the 2024 were looking great:

> Trump hammered the administration for creating an “economic catastrophe,” but some of his favorite gauges for assessing economic performance have been humming.

* https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/15/biden-economy-donal...

And the only predictions of a downturn in 2025 was if Trump made good on his threats of tariffs:

* https://chamber.ca/news/trumps-25-tariff-threat-new-analysis...

So you voted for tariffs by voting for Trump, and by voting for tariffs you voted for economic instability. There was nothing in the pre-Trump policies and economic thinking that would have caused an economic downturn.

Further, you voted for the gutting and privatization government functions:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025

The guy who went through with the fake electors scheme does bad things, who could have guess it?

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