Just picking a semi-related stock, NVDA trades at ~30x gross revenue, so a $300B "only" translates into ~$10B in revenue. And OpenAI can ask for a better multiplier because I'm sure they're forecasting a ton of growth and a ton of cost savings.
Consider this: Nvidia doesn't do the manufacturing, just the engineering. If we had AI super intelligence, you'd just need to type "give me CUDA but for AMD" into chatGPT and Nvidia wouldn't be special anymore. Then someone at TSMC could type "design a gpu" and the whole industry above them would be toast.
There's no reason to expect an engineering firm to win if AI commoditizes engineering. It's very possible to change the world and lose money doing it.
- has absurd gross margin, almost half it's revenue are profits
- it has virtually no competition
OpenAI's moat does not exist. Even if they had one, all it takes is a competitor to buy out some engineering talent.