In the 20th century, currency was the unit of power. In the 21st, it may be model weights.

This essay explores how AI infrastructure is becoming the new substrate of foreign policy — from NVIDIA-enforced export controls and Chinese inference-layer censorship, to Western soft-power SDKs and the rise of a Non-Aligned AI Movement led by India, UAE, and others.

Core thesis: Model weights aren't just software artifacts — they encode values, access, and control. Inference is becoming governance. Alignment is becoming diplomacy.

We examine: • The AI supply chain as chokepoint warfare (compute, cooling, and control) • Inference policy as foreign policy: what a model says is what a state allows • China's "middle-stack strategy" vs. the West's modular API empire • The emergence of a multipolar AI order: open weights, local fine-tunes, sovereign SDKs • Why the next hegemon may not print money — it may export weights

Would love thoughts from HN readers working on AI infra, geopolitics, open-source models, or alignment policy.

Full essay here → https://mateopetel.substack.com/p/red-chips-blue-models-ai-a...

Happy to answer questions or dive deeper into any thread.