The core issue with the Gartner hype cycle (beyond it not being a cycle!) is that it simply does not apply to "any new tech," tautologically it only applies to hype-driven tech with staying power. Tech which is not driven by hype (e.g. mRNA vaccines driven by urgent need) don't have a trough of disappointment, just a steady slope upwards. And tech which is driven entirely by hype (Theranos) stays in the trough of disappointment forever.

The Gartner hype cycle is astrology for MBAs: it cannot fail, it can only be failed by those lacking faith to see its wisdom.