The best available open weight LLMs now come from China
simonwillison.net
simonwillison.net
This crowing also largely depends on how Meta flubbed their last release. Again cool, no one is perfect.
It doesnt follow that somehow china has overtaken america. Let it happen consistently, but its inappropriate to say right now.
However they have always excelled at reverse-engineering / duplicating existing technologies, which falls more into their manufacturing-based educational-technological paradigm.
AI is a target industry well-tailored to their industrial pipeline, and the state has a vested interest in dethroning western tech companies.
So while they may not lead innovation (or when they do, it is only momentary), they will most likely follow this trajectory for the foreseeable future.
They particularly have an advantage with regard to copyright law. OpenAI, Stability, etc are under fire for the use of copyrighted materials in their training. No such issue there.
Because China has the unique, unprecedented, wholly outrageous advantage of not feeling the need to respect western intellectual property in its training set.
American firms are totally hamstrung by their dedication to protecting rightsholders.