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Good framing but IMHO it’s a bit like thinking by analogy.

Last time, USA was behind in space race and they didn’t just use what they already had to go to the moon, instead they started a huge movement that inspired and educated generations of scientist and engineers. this redeemed all the issues with cutting services from other places to go to the moon.

This time around, it looks like a desperate attempt to do something that worked in the past and looks impressive on face value, but it’s actually empty inside.

Last time, huge number of people were provided with resources and education that had outstanding impact on America, much much more than the act of landing on the moon did by itself.

This time you get resources directed to a generation of hateful people and sex offenders who use the already available technology to produce a show.

There is zero chance that humans will land on Mars before the end of the current administration. It isn't technically feasible. They are not seriously planning on this.

I don't think we should underestimate how poor their grasp of technical reality might be.

And I hate to say it, but in this context, Musk would’ve been at least a little useful in having around. I’m aware he’s not the best person to make reliable predictions, but he does run SpaceX.

With both the cuts to NASA and Musk leaving the core inner circle of Trump, space exploration is going to be set back. Mars ain’t happening in our lifetimes, IMO.

I hope I’m wrong.

I don't see how Musk could help in any way. He isn't an engineer, and the problems with space exploration are still pure engineering problems. You might as well be asking the CEO of Ford to come to your house and help you replace your cam bearings on a Nissan.

He isn't an engineer but does have considerably more willingness to listen to and understand engineers than the rest of the administration.

If nothing else, he's aware that there's a bit more involved in getting humans to Mars on any timeline than just rockets, and slashing the budget of the only entity working on those problems might not speed up getting there...

If course, he also knows enough to know nobody's sending manned missions to Mars in the next launch window regardless of whose in charge, and he's been quite fond of breaking stuff recently so I'm not sure we want Elon in charge either.

> the problems with space exploration are still pure engineering problems

The problems are engineering at a cost which is politically acceptable.

If we wanted to, we could really go to Mars. It would just be really expensive - e.g. not a cost the public is current willing to bear.

Elon Musk? The guy who said we would have unmanned missions to mars by 2026 and manned missions by 2030? He's just as insane and full of dookie as the rest of em.

Eh, the Moon landing was extremely agreessive and faced huge challenges yet was still achieved using technology and knowledge way behind what we have today. If we really wanted to put someone on Mars in the same aggressive manner as we had with the Moon, we could launch that mission by 2030 (travel time would take longer and there would be no return). The only real obstacle is the lack of will and money.

Nah. No amount of will and money could launch a Mars landing mission by 2030 with a reasonable chance of success. Some of the critical components don't exist yet and development can't be significantly accelerated. This is the real world, not a Michael Bay movie.

"Some of the critical components don't exist yet and development can't be significantly accelerated."

Such as?

I don't see why it couldn't be done in a crunch if we had to for some reason. SpaceX isn't pursuing such a thing because it would be a dumb idea rather than wait for the Starship program.

Falcon 9 regularly sends 17 Tons to LEO 2-3 times per week and is human rated. We could probably build a Mars shuttle in orbit, similar to how the ISS was constructed. We've already landed an SUV-sized robot on Mars. There are some open questions like orbital propellent transfer but it doesn't seem like it would be impossible to me.

I believe they already have the propellant transfer worked out. There was a paper a few years back looking into Musk's general plan. They already had some mechanism for refueling. If I remember correctly, the biggest questions were around lifesupport systems with their efficiency and heat shields. Which were technically still solvable with current technologies and slightly different approaches.

From my perspective, the thing they're mostly waiting for is additional tech to make everything easier and lower risk, or for an aggressive administration that can push it and fund it.

So have they announced this theoretical 2026 mission yet? How does this work with one single launch window remaining?

They're not going to land on Mars by 2028.

Yes, but the administration doesn't know that.

I would be willing to bet there's a high probability that Starship lands on Mars by 2028 without people on it. The real question will be in how many pieces.

> land on Mars before their current term expires

As a nation we need to figure out how you, probably a person who considers yourself a functioning adult member of society, came to believe and even repeat this.

> "before their current term expires"

> "This mirrors the political, prestige, and technology triumph of the Kennedy administration"

Trump may have said "before my term ends"; what JFK said was "before this decade is out".

IMHO, this is like a diametric opposite of Richard M. Nixon landing on the moon, two presidencies after Kennedy (and of opposite party); acting for Americans' obvious shared interests (not personal vanity); being the final link in an unbroken chain of sustained, stable governance. We've lost the capacity for greatness of that era. We don't have that, that chain of stable governance in service of national interests; what we have is an attention-deficient narcissist, capriciously destroying every great American thing that exists which doesn't have name attached.

(Ironically, the thing Kennedy so fervently competed against no longer exists today. That fearsome adversary, the triumph of Sputnik and Gagarin, was also demolished in this century by a Trump-like figure, spouting vapid promises of greatness as he vandaled and looted it to the ground).

> a Trump-like figure, spouting vapid promises of greatness

Can't pinpoint who you are referring to. Gemini thinks Yeltsin? But neither it nor I remember any "greatness" promises from the guy.

Putin made a number of incredibly grandiose promises about Russia's progress in space (and in technology and engineering generally), as he dismantled and looted Roscosmos over the past twenty years—gifting away its wealth to oligarch allies. The Russian space capability is a shadow of its former self, barely able to maintain its old Soviet rocket production. Their ISS modules, if you've been following, are quite literally falling apart from negligence—leaking toxic gases and such.

Here's a generic example of the flavor of Russia's non-credible space propaganda—stuff their government says, like Trump, that's an enormous lie, that everyone knows is a lie:

https://web.archive.org/web/20120204103104/http://english.pr... (Pravda: "Russia to send cosmonauts to the Moon this decade" (2012))

To be fair, Russian space stagnated since before him. The current fallout is caused by somebody actually bothering to move forward.

Putin you idiot.

There are 3.5 years left in the administration. The time between Apollo 1 and Apollo 11 was 2.5 years. At its closest point, Mars is more than 100 times further away than the Moon. Just a trip there takes like nine months when delivering small payloads that don't need to return. And you need to time it so that you plan the mission when mars and earth are very near each other, which is only every couple of years.

The idea that the Trump administration could put a man on mars before the end of their term, even if this was a very top priority is ludicrous.

> The real game the current administration is playing is to land on Mars before their current term expires.

This will literally not happen and anyone who thinks it will needs to seek professional help.

This is nothing but lies and bullshit ....landing a man on Mars in the next three years is so batshit insane I worry for your sanity.