In all fairness, that really stands to reason: retrospective analysis is enormously much easier, more precise and less risky than prediction, for the simple reason that after the fact (especially this long and with lots of inside people having spoken up since), there is enormously more data available than before it went downhill. So it's much less a question of having guts than of having access to sufficient data to see enough of the whole picture.

I agree and would’ve written the same several years ago. Unfortunately, shorting is expensive and you have to get the timing right, too, not only the direction of the stock. If you’re early when shorting, you’re still wrong.