Hacker News Reader

Comment by hervature | Hacker News Reader

You are supposed to invest and keep the money working for you. Adjusted for inflation, S&P 500 returns 6.5% a year. That alone gets you above the poverty line. Recall, this is inflation adjusted so your $600,000 is growing with inflation and the poverty line income also grows over time. This does not account for any swings.

View on HN

You can't actually draw down 6.5%/yr, though, because of sequence of returns risk. The number that is actually safe (historically) is something like 3.5%.

Keep in mind that almost all of the FIRE advice available online has been written in a bull stock market that is almost 2 decades long (COVID drawdown is a blip on the 2008-2025 chart).

Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Do you know anyone still running a risk parity 60% UPRO/40% TMF (3x long S&P 500, 3x long 20-year Treasury Bonds) portfolio? That portfolio composition had massive returns, until the Fed started hiking rates.

The annual implied volatility of SPX is around 15-20%, if you want to withdraw 6.5% a year at 40 and have to restart your career at 55, be my guest.

A 40% drawdown on 600k is -240k which puts you at 360k, 6.5% of which is $23,400. Starts getting pretty tight if you need to sell assets for cash which reduces your future returns.

> Keep in mind that almost all of the FIRE advice available online has been written in a secular bull market that is almost 2 decades long

Most of the reasonable FIRE advice (e.g. https://earlyretirementnow.com/ quality) suggests a ~3-3.5% withdrawal rate, which has been measured using historical data way before the current secular market.

Is your take that even such withdrawal rate wouldn't work anymore, moving forward?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com