One can become more controlled and wrangle in the edge-cases, and the other has exploding edges.
You can have your politics around the value of open source models, but I find it hard to argue that there aren't MUCH higher risks with the lack of containment of open weights models
The other assumption is that nefarious actors will care about any of this. They'll use what's available, or make their own models, or maybe even steal models (if China had an incredible AI, don't you think other countries would be trying to steal the weights?). Bad actors don't care about moral positions, strangely enough.
Of course, the US is a captured state now and so the current US Government has no problem with Russian election interference so long as it benefits them