Mobile Apps: HTML5 vs Native
ericsink.com
ericsink.com
But you have a point. People never liked Java desktop apps. But part of it was that you had to install the Java runtime and they didn't have the familiar .exe extension.
With HTML 5 you can just plug it into an embedded browser and let users download that. Then you can add a hybrid approach where you add some native features such as notifications and camera support while the main content is HTML. Plus, designers can work a lot better with developers on the web paradigm.
If you're creating a mobile app that will mostly be used over 3G, your user experience is going to be different than an app used only/mostly with WiFi.