[stub for offtopicness]
My thinking: In a financial system collapse (a la The Big Short), the assets under analysis are themselves the things of value. Whereas betting on AI to collapse a technology business is at least one step removed from actual valuation, even assuming:
1. AI Agents do deliver just enough, and stay around long enough, for big corporations to lay off large number of employees
2. After doing so, AI quickly becomes prohibitively expensive for the business
3. The combination of the above factors tank business productivity
In the event of a perfect black swan, the trouble is that it's not actually clear that this combination of factors would result in concrete valuation drops. The business just "doesn't ship as much" or "ships more slowly". This is bad, but it's only really bad if you have competitors that can genuinely capitalise on that stall.
An example immediately on-hand: for non-AI reasons, the latest rumors are that Apple's next round of Macbook Pros will be delayed. This sucks. But isn't particularly damaging to the company's stock price because there isn't really a competitor in the market that can capitalise on that delay in a meaningful way.
Similarly, I couldn't really tell you what the most recent non-AI software features shipped by Netflix or Facebook or X actually were. How would I know if they're struggling internally and have stopped shipping features because AI is too expensive and all their devs were laid off?
I guess if you're looking for a severe black swan to bet against AI Agents in general, you'd need to find a company that was so entrenched and so completely committed to and dependent on AI that they could not financially survive a shock like that AND they're in a space where competitors will immediately seize advantage.
Don't get me wrong though, even if there's no opportunity to actually bet against that situation, it will still suck for literally everyone if it eventuates.
I don't think this one is worth shorting because there's no specific event to trigger the mindshare to start moving and validating your position. You'd have to wait for very big public failures before the herd start to move.
Claude Code is impressive but it still produces quite a bit of garbage in my experience, and coding agents are likely to be the best agents around for the foreseeable future.
This is not a new observation -- Clark's note on overestimating short term and underestimating long term impact of technology is one of my favorite patterns. My 2c.
And I have an AI workflow that generates much better posts than this.
I read and generate hundreds of posts every month. I have to read books on writing to keep myself sane and not sound like an AI.
Or it's possible that he is one of those people that _realy_ adopted LLMs into _all_ their workflow, I guess, and he thinks the output is good enough as is, because it captured his general points?
LLMs have certainly damaged trust in general internet reading now, that's for sure.
Judging by the other comments this is clearly low-effort AI slop.
> LLMs have certainly damaged trust in general internet reading now, that's for sure.
I hate that this is what we have to deal with now.
One reason why LLM generated text bothers me is because there's no conscious, coherent mind behind it. There's no communicative intent because language models are inherently incapable of it. When I read a blog post, I subconsciously create a mental model of the author, deduce what kind of common ground we might have and use this understanding to interpret the text. When I learn that an LLM generated a text I've read, that mental model shatters and I feel like I was lied to. It was just a machine pretending to be a human, and my time and attention could've been used to read something written by a living being.
I read blogs to learn about the thoughts of other humans. If I wanted to know what an LLM thought about the state of vibe coding, I could just ask one at any time.
Perhaps more interesting is whether their argument is valid and whether their math is correct.
> AI tools aren't perfect yet. They sometimes make mistakes, and they can't always understand what you are trying to do. But they're getting better all the time, In the future, they will be more powerful and helpful. They'll be able to understand your code even better, and they'll be able to generate even more creative ideas.
From another post on the same site. [0]
Yup, slop.
[0]: https://utkarshkanwat.com/writing/review-of-coding-tools/
This phrase is usually followed by some, you know...Math?
"We can't allow this post to create FUD about the current hype on AI agents and we need the scam to continue as long as possible".
I’m at this stage where I’m fine with AI generated content. Sure, the verbosity sucks - but there’s an interesting idea here, but make it clear that you’ve used AI, and show your prompts.
Sounds like good business to me.
All you are really saying with this comment is you have an incredibly narrow set of interests and absolutely no intellectual curiosity.