probability is memoryless.
If you have been base jumping for 20 years, you have the same risk on your next jump as someone trying it for the first time.
If you have been base jumping for 20 years, you have the same risk on your next jump as someone trying it for the first time.
The way you answer it is by flipping it upside down (what is the probability of surviving a single jump?) and multiplying that value by itself n times, where n is the number of jumps.
.99999 * .99999 * .99999 * …