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Gary Marcus is so systematically and overconfidently wrong that I wonder why we keep talking about this clown.

People just give attention to people making surprising bold counter narrative predictions but don't give them any attention when they're wrong.

People like him and Zitron do serve a useful purpose in balancing the hype from the other side, which, while justified to a great extent, is often a bit too overwhelming.

Being wrong in the other direction doesn't mean you've found a great balance, it just means you've found a new way to be wrong.

These numbers feel kind of meaningless without any work showing how he got to 16%

I do think Gary Marcus says a lot of wrong stuff about LLMs but I don’t see anything too egregious in that post. He’s just describing the results they got a few months ago.

He definitely cannot use the original arguments from then ChatGPT arrived, he's a perennial goal post shifter.

My understanding is that Eliezer more or less thinks it's over for humans.

He hasn't given up though: https://xcancel.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1922710969785917691#m