From the abstract of the study behind the article [1]:
When people seek to impress others, they often do so by
highlighting individual achievements. Despite the intuitive
appeal of this strategy, we demonstrate that people often
prefer potential rather than achievement when evaluating
others. Indeed, compared with references to achievement
(e.g., “this person has won an award for his work”),
references to potential (e.g., “this person could win an
award for his work”) appear to stimulate greater interest
and processing, which can translate into more favorable
reactions. This tendency creates a phenomenon whereby the
potential to be good at something can be preferred over
actually being good at that very same thing. We document
this preference for potential in laboratory and field
experiments, using targets ranging from athletes to
comedians to graduate school applicants and measures
ranging from salary allocations to online ad clicks to
admission decisions.
What causes this apparent preference for potential achievement over actual achievement? According to the study's abstract (the study itself is behind a pay wall), it's a mind trick: uncertainty "stimulates greater interest and processing, which can translate into more favorable reactions." More of the same from the HBR piece: When human brains come across uncertainty, they tend to pay
attention to information more because they want to figure
it out, which leads to longer and more in-depth
processing. High-potential candidates make us think harder
than proven ones do. So long as the information available
about the high-potential candidate is favorable, all this
extra processing can lead (unconsciously) to an overall
more positive view of the candidate (or company). (That
part about the information available being favorable is
important. In another study, when the candidate was
described as having great potential, but there was little
evidence to back that up, people liked him far less than
the proven achiever.)
That's a nice theory, but another explanation, which doesn't seem to have been considered, is that in many cases something that has the potential to reach a value of X is actually more valuable than something that we know, with certainty, has a value of X. That's because a thing that has the potential to reach X also has the potential to reach beyond X, but a thing that has already been measured to be X does not.In other words, you are given two probability distributions: one wide, one tight. The wide one, you are told, has the potential to contain X. But the tight one, for certain, is centered on X. Now, which do you pick?
If you're in a situation were values of X are nice but values beyond X are gold, then you pick the wide distribution. That's because the tight distribution is centered on "nice" and, being tight, offers almost no hope of straying into "gold" territory.
So maybe it's not a mind trick, after all.
[1] http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/2012-18069-001/
EDIT: fix typos.