Comment by CapricornNoble | Hacker News Reader

Comment by CapricornNoble | Hacker News Reader

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> With more than 1.2M dead or out of service injured, Russia is spent

> All they can effectivley do, until they grow new soldiers, is defense.

I'm genuinely curious what your information diet/sources looks like that would lead you to make such statements.

According to Ukrainian sources, Russian end strength in Ukraine continues to increase and they are maintaining a strategic reserve of personnel as well:

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-plans-to-increase-groupin... The Russian military plans to increase its grouping in Ukraine by 150,000 soldiers in 2025, equivalent to around 15 motorized infantry divisions, Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa said on April 3, Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne reported.

"Their formation is ongoing. The Russians have no problems with recruiting personnel now..."

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/syrskyi-warns-russia-stockpi... "Moreover, Russia maintains an additional 121,000 troops in its strategic reserve—comprising 13 divisions, as well as various regiments and brigades—that could be deployed to the battlefield if necessary."

"This means their army grows by an average of 8,000 to 9,000 soldiers every month," the Commander-in-Chief noted.

As for Russia only being able to defend, how do you square that with this Finnish analysis group's tracking of Russian territorial control rates increasing every month this year?

https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1l30kb...

That data roughly matches one of Reddit's most prolific meta-analysts, who mostly uses Suriyak data (the most reputable Russian mapper):

https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1lpspn...

They had to withdraw from Syria, due to a loss of ability to project power. That's how desperate they are for troops. They removed troops, planes, closed bases. Almost immediately Syria fell.

Israel and the US's stance with Iran, was something not as plausible when Russian strength existed in the region. Russia complained and threatened, but naturally nothing has come of it. They have no capacity to do anything, or project power. There is no Russian strength in the Middle East any more. Why? They cannot extend their power beyond their borders.

This is doubly unfortunate for Russia, as Iran was, I repeat was sending massive amounts of shells, drones, and more to Russia. For some odd reason, they've stopped (sarcasm).

Using reserve troops is what Russia could do if their back was to the wall. They need troops in country, or there will be a revolt within. Remember, Russia is not a democracy, but a totalitarian state controlled by a dictator with an iron fist. If their 'reserves' are drawn down too far, there will be insurgency.

Hiring mercenaries (in the article aka contract soldiers) from anywhere including China, isn't the same as getting seasoned, loyal troops. And it doesn't discount what I'm saying. They have lost their capacity to project power, and are now relying upon mercenaries to shore up their troop levels. They're spent.

> They removed troops, planes, closed bases. Almost immediately Syria fell.

This has more to do with the Syrian military being completely starved of resources, particularly money, due to the US occupying the most lucrative portions of sovereign Syrian territory for years. Not having Russian airpower on call absolutely contributed to the collapse but not being able to reliably pay/staff formerly-capable formations like the Tiger Forces or 4th Armored Division (in addition to not being able to afford reconstruction) is what really did the regime in. Watch this from 2019:

https://www.youtube.com/live/MFsFOS5Odno?si=xry8-a2_cKLIRKW-...

>This is doubly unfortunate for Russia, as Iran was, I repeat was sending massive amounts of shells, drones, and more to Russia. For some odd reason, they've stopped (sarcasm).

The Russians have been domestically mass producing their versions of the Shahed-series drones for a while now. Interruptions in arms transfers due to Iran's own security problems are unlikely to significantly degrade Russia's drone salvos at this point.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/55948 The organization calculated that Russia produced an average of 60.5 Geran drones per day, or roughly 1,850 drones per month, between February and April 2025.

https://www.calibredefence.co.uk/shahed-and-geran-the-evolut... Over time, a separate version emerged which is known as the Geran-2, which is the name given to Shaheds made in Russia. Russia now makes hundreds of these drones every week, enabling it to increase its usage to 200 per week in September 2024, and then to 1,000 per week by March 2025.

> They need troops in country, or there will be a revolt within.

Who do you think will stage a revolt, with both Navalny and Prigozhin dead? There's not really any charismatic opposition leadership left that I can think of.

> They have lost their capacity to project power

Ok, I will compromise and largely agree with this statement in broad strokes. Yes, Russia's power projection capacity has diminished. That's a very different position IMO compared to "Russia can only do defense" as you stated earlier....while Russia has ~600,000 men busy invading the largest country in Europe after Russia itself. Their global power projection capacity is degraded because so much of their attention is sucked into fighting the largest land war in Europe in 80 years, but that's not the same as only being able to defend.

> Hiring mercenaries (in the article aka contract soldiers) from anywhere including China, isn't the same as getting seasoned, loyal troops.

Without going too far off on a tangent, this also applies to Ukraine (regarding loyalty...Colombians are definitely considered "seasoned" as far as international mercenaries go).

https://www.nzz.ch/english/discharged-by-their-own-countrys-...

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2025/06/04/iowa...

See my info page

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