Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically
garymarcus.substack.com
garymarcus.substack.com
Over the last several decades we've seen an enormous transfer and consolidation of wealth from many people into a much smaller number of people. I think AI is going to dramatically accelerate this.
Fully open source, locally-hosted AI models are currently lagging far behind their commercial counterparts (in adoption if not capability). The web had a free-for-all period run by free software where it was able to gestate and gain traction before the walled garden era took over. Application development likewise had a long period of time where independent developers were able to build and distribute software (for free or otherwise) before the app store model took over; now, a significant portion of software development needs to be authorized by a third party before it can be distributed to potential users.
We did not get that same gestational period for AI. It went from theory to commercial product astonishingly fast. There are daily threads on HN now comparing how much everyone is "happy" to pay for their favorite commercial AI each month.
Developers are paying companies for the privilege of writing software.
The developers that, for whatever reason, refuse to get on board this train are going to be quickly outcompeted by the rest. Maybe they have been already.
It's likely that by about 2028 or thereabouts, we will see a landscape where just a few commercial entities will have captured the process of software development. If you want to make money making software, you will have to pay one of them to do it.
And yes, there are AI killbot startups.[1] "At SECL Group, our team has vast experience in developing various drone systems, including those related to drone swarms. If you are interested in implementing AI-based target recognition capabilities in your UAVs, feel free to get in touch with us to discuss the details."
[1] https://seclgroup.com/adding-ai-and-ml-to-military-drones-fo...
Because once 99% of the population lose the opportunity to at least learn a skill that they are good at, and (Importantly!!) for which they have some aptitude over others, and apply it, then they will face an existence of very little meaning. Like it or not, people want to be distinguishable from others, and if everyone can do everything with AI, then that disappears.
Techies don't like to admit it because they are at the top, but through AI, they are creating their own bubble world with their little toys that will act through the immense power of AI as an oligarchy that rules the listless and depressed masses.
A rather contemptible existence, in my opinion.
> a lot of people with traits like Musk would make us completely subservient without any freedom
That would be the "dystopia" the person you replied to mentioned.
He’s literally called for jailing and worse of people with progressive ideas. Either he’s a junky who is so high he doesn’t know what he’s saying, or he’s an evil piece of white shit. (I consider “edgelord doing it for the lulz” to be the second category.)
Unfortunately, recovering from that state and returning to normality (and gaining/regaining the ability to face oneself seriously and make amends when necessary) usually requires having multiple supportive friends. Elon hasn't been in a position to get for years.
Instead it is about how Elon Musk and his AI will somehow end the world... Disappointed.
He was lucky, and that's all, with Facebook and has coasted on its momentum ever since.
Every single "play" after that has failed.
Not only have they failed, he's even fallen into the dictator's trap: where wealthy men who surround themselves with multiple layers of overlapping and competing of staff and hierarchy which act to completely insulate and isolate them from reality start or fund outlandish, impossible, vanity projects.
I don't know why these guys don't take the money and run and spend the rest of their lives scuba diving and fixing vintage sports cars in their garage-- but I'm not a sociopath.
Musk is less incompetent.
The Great Man is a myth that needs to die.
If you or any other person had wealthy parents who sent you to Philips Exeter and then Harvard and been friends and roommates with who Zuckerberg had been, you would be a wealthy banker, professional, or with luck-- Facebook founder.
My best friend in the Army was a Philips Exeter cat who rebelled against his parents and joined the military, married a stripper, drank and fucked his way across a couple of countries, divorced the stripper, got out of the military, went back home with his hat in his hand, got his mom and dad to pay for Marquette, and now he's the CEO of a medical device manufacturing company his parents started.
Nice guy.
Dumb as hell, but nice.
Do you really think it's just competence?
A lot of other people also started businesses in ~2004. I worked with one yesterday, he's now a freelancing consultant who is well worth the $180/hour he charges for software development skills in the niche he's built in the last 20 years. He's technically brilliant, brings himself rapidly up to date on new tools, works hard and fast, and is also extremely professional when it comes to communication, finances, and scheduling - a rare combination. I haven't asked about his personal net worth, but he's talked about retirement in a few years, just guessing he's worth maybe a couple million?
Competence cannot be in any way correlated to empire and net worth if Zuck is worth 100,000 times more than my friend. From what I've seen and read from Zuckerberg, he's maybe 0.8x? 0.7? as capable or as intelligent. Maybe, if it's all a front and he's actually the most incredible human being ever, he's 2x. Or even imagine he's a so-called 10x worker. But there's no way that any human's contributions can be imagined to be worth 100,000x more than even an average person's labor.
I'll grant that maybe there's a floor on competence required to reach that level of income. Maybe Zuck isn't truly incompetent. But it's definitely not just competence.
Yeah, scuba is cool, but I've got a handful of pet engineering projects I'd love to tinker on if I won the lottery (while farming off any drudge work that comes up). I assume all the businesspeople and politicians I also observe to fall into this trap just do the same with their particular area of expertise.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/14/elon-musk...
But consider, in the alternate universe where we never invent AI, economic p(doom) is also 100%. Humans are fragile and short-lived.
If you have a single AI that is capped at an intelligence ceiling equivalent to human levels of intellect, what is stopping you from running fifty of them, in parallel, at fifty times faster than our normal human clock speed, as a team?