We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse.

PRC probably has more than OECD combined in STEM by now. Based on past 20 years of even declining births and tertiary + STEM enrollment %s, they're still on trend to add another 40+ million in next 20-25 years, i.e. it's demographically baked in. Many of whom will be in the workforce until the 2070/80s/90s - for most of our and our kids life times. +40m is more than US is expected to increase population (births + immigration) total - US would need every new baby and immigrant to be STEM to compete on talent. Meanwhile more PRC talent staying/harder to brain drain/even returning irrespective of western immigration policies. It's no exaggeration to say PRC is reaping the greatest high skill demographic dividend in recorded history.

All the current contesting across innovative sectors PRC doing today (well last 10 years) was while they were rapidly fumbling through building industrial chain and R&D processes... catching up with fraction of resources. Now it's increasingly obvious their R&D and industries arespinning towards escape velocity with the most brains and most complete manufacturing chain (PRC only country in the world whose manufacturing sector has every industrial category classified by the UN).

West going to be much more keen to protect these sectors domestically, but it's going to be hard to prop them up. I think study from 5 years ago, when a low cost PRC competitor enters market, western incumbent global market share erodes rapidly -> operating margins collapse by 50-100% -> run out of $$$ for R&D -> stops growing and become dividend zombies. 2nd China shock will be this industrial trap repeat across many sectors.

The manufacturing jobs discussion (in the article called China Shock 1.0), I find it confusing and maybe nonsensical.

The market for those jobs changed, the market became cheap labor from wherever, in this case China. That's what happened, it seems like it is less China as those jobs effectively became low wage (bad jobs) and I don't see anyone magically protecting those jobs at the time or now. It's not like the US could hold out and say "nope these manufacturing jobs have to pay higher wages" and that work in any way.

"Today, it is aggressively contesting the innovative sectors where the United States has long been the unquestioned leader: aviation, A.I., telecommunications, microprocessors, robotics, nuclear and fusion power, quantum computing, biotech and pharma, solar, batteries."

I think at least in solar and batteries China has already gone beyond "contesting"... and maybe telecommunications and robotics (components)? The others don't seem as clear on China's path to dominance.

Not to worry, the USA is winning the trade war with our enemies in Canada, Mexico and the EU.

EU joke: What borders on stupid?

Answer: Canada and Mexico.

Who doesn't want to pay more for lumber and produce?