Are there any alternatives coming out soon or generics?
Are there any alternatives coming out soon or generics?
United States: The main patent is expected to expire around 2032. Monthly Price: $950 - $1,350+ (cash price without insurance)
Norway: The main patent is expected to expire around 2031. Monthly Price: $109 - $301 (cash price equivalent in USD)
Tirzepatide is the most potent GLP1
https://glp1.guide/content/semaglutide-vs-tirzepatide-clinic...
Before I started experiments on "my lab rat" with retatrutide, I found that combination of the about half max dose of semaglutide and 1/3 of Max dose of tirzepatide had the best combination of losing weight and lowering side effects. But another "lab rat" did not respond that well to this combo and we keep adjusting it.
Retatrutide so far looks the most compatible, but it is sample of 1.
That said, Reta is a triple agonist[0] and it seems to be quite amazing with good muscle retention as well -- it's unclear if this is just the people who are taking it being more likely to be gym goers. Up until now the only formulation I've seen that specifically targets preserving muscle is GLP1s in combination with bimagrumab[1].
[0]: https://glp1.guide/content/a-new-glp1-retatrutide/
[1]: https://glp1.guide/content/preserving-muscle-glp1s-with-bima...
A fancy way of saying: I *think* Semaglutide is best.
Unless you mean that Semaglutide worked best for you, right now the research points at Tirzepatide being most effective for weight loss (says nothing about t2d though).
Eminent domain would still require fair compensation to the company, so you'd have to pay them more or less what they'd lose from not having the patent anymore.
(Though I think the term you might be looking for is 'compulsory licensing' or so? Not sure.)
The drug companies are presumably pricing optimally for profit (but not for maximum public benefit, for which the optimum price is ~0). You could calculate the net present value of the drug companies' total profits attributable to the patent, add on 10% as a bonus, and pay them off. If the welfare gains of having cheap drugs are genuinely greater than the value of the patent to the holder, this would be win/win.
But also, if you change it to "millions of people", the point is no less valid.
To say 'billions', I'd assume you'd want at least 2?
“If you invest hundreds of millions and it turns out to be life changing, we’re going to seize it”
The point is that you don't get to withhold the drug from people to maximize profits.
While 2032 seems very far away now, its actually remarkably soon in the grand scheme of society.
My understanding is one of their defendable moats is the patent not on the compound itself, but on the injectors. Which is far longer.
That is very typical in the drug/medical industry. To the point where it is sometimes (often? usually?) an intentional strategy.
They have also made a business of either stifling or “catch and kill”ing of the generics for their products. It’s cheaper to pay off a generic manufacturer to not compete with the new thing than it is to lose price elasticity of the n non-generic.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11457043/
That articulates it better than I will
There are some bad patents that should never have been granted, like Novartis' famous 631 patent [1]. However, those are the exception, not the rule. If you want to put a generic drug into an auto injector, there are a dozen generic autoinjector companies looking to take your money. Drug + autoinjector does not pass the US patent office non-obviousness test (for obvious reasons). What gets patents is custom design features - bells and whistles. New features are part of the roadmap because customers will prefer them over competition without them, not because it magically extends prior IP (that isn't a thing).
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/regeneron-advances-antit...
It’s rarely because of a new technological breakthrough, but rather a way of drug companies lengthening the time they can profit off a drug.
If they released it earlier they would simply take market share from themselves, but by releasing it close to the time of generics they take market share from generics.
Why didn’t Wegovy come out 5 years sooner? Why does it use a different injector than Ozempic? I don’t know but sounds quite similar to the ER/XR strategy.
Most companies move to improve their product when needed to stay ahead of the competition.
That's how you get improvement.
Here are some choice parts:
> Drug manufacturers listed 22 patents after FDA approval of the 10 products in the cohort...Post-approval patents only extended the duration of protection on 2 products (median 4.6 years.
This is makes sense if there is actually something novel to add [keeping in mind the authors are treating any IP as if it protects the entirety of the product. A sugar coating or whatever wont protect the non-sugar coated pill.
To the extent I agree with the paper, it is that the 30 month hold is weaponized and should be reviewed and the issue with settlements should be addressed
My comment was a quick and sloppy summary from my memory of an interview from several years ago. I think it was the EconTalk with the author of Drug Wars.
A more detailed and comprehensive list of these tactics to reduce competition either during or after patent expiry:
Patent-related strategies:
• Building “patent thickets” by filing multiple patents on different aspects of the same drug (formulation, dosing, manufacturing processes) • “Evergreening” - seeking new patents on minor modifications to extend exclusivity periods • Filing continuation patents and divisional applications to extend patent timelines Product lifecycle management: • “Product hopping” - making minor reformulations or switching to extended-release versions just before generic entry to move patients to the new version • Discontinuing older versions that generics would reference
Legal and regulatory tactics:
• Pay-for-delay settlements where brand companies pay generics to postpone market entry • Manipulating FDA safety programs (REMS) to make it difficult for generics to obtain necessary samples for testing • Citizen petitions to the FDA raising questions about generic equivalence
Market-based approaches:
• Launching “authorized generics” through subsidiaries to capture generic market share • Exclusive dealing arrangements with pharmacy benefit managers
There are dozens of autoinjector manufacturers, and generics can and do change manufacturers. It looks like semaglutide uses an off the shelf Yposomate pen, although Novo Nordisk uses different injectors depending on the country and indication.
Novo Nordisk also has an in house pen, but this would not prevent someone from competing, unless patients simply prefer that design to a generic one.
Novo lawyers messed up, didn't renew the patent filing over a payment dispute. Hilarity is ensuing.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/hims-hers-generic-semaglutid...
And once generics for GLP-1s are going in Canada, Section 804 of the FD&C act becomes VERY interesting: https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/reports/importation-program-un...
Reimports of generics from Canada into the US here. we. go.
>Novo Nordisk’s lawyers requested a refund for the paid 2017 maintenance fee of $250 Canadian dollars ($185) because the company wanted more time to see if it wanted to pay it, according to letters included in the documents.
>Two years later, the office sent a letter saying the fee, which now included a late charge bringing the total to CA$450, was not received by the prescribed due date.
>Novo Nordisk had a one-year grace period to pay, but never did, and so its patent lapsed in Canada. It lapsed in 2020 when the fee was not received, but it doesn’t expire until January.
Basically, Tirz > Sema > Lira
https://glp1.guide/content/semaglutide-vs-tirzepatide-clinic...
https://glp1.guide/content/semaglutide-liraglutide-continue-...
https://glp1.guide/content/another-generic-liraglutide-launc...
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/pharmaceut...
It’s a massive problem for several of my friends who are doctors. Patients start on something that works incredibly well for them then their insurance pushes them to Litaglutide and they loose all of their progress.
Some of it comes down to a fear of needles, some of it comes down to non-compliance, some of it comes down to access.
Daily injections are fatiguing on people. Its a big challenge with diabetes management.
There are group chats with tens of thousands of people and I havent seen any issues with the drug
Asking for a friend.