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What about all the phones that have launched with 4.0 and hardware menu buttons?

What about them? Relying on the menu button is a very, very, very bad idea because there are devices that it doesn't exist on.

Except my GS3 has one, and released on 4.0 with 4.1 due out very soon.

The only phone I can think of that doesn't have that is the Nexus.

HTC's new phones, every single tablet released after Honeycomb.

Google said it was no longer "required" but even through 4.1 SDK it is still supported.

Interestingly, the button that HAS died is the search button. Any device I've seen with a physical home button has opted for a long press to be the app switch, and then to leave the menu button in.

Personally, I like the menu button. It feels very natural on my SGSIII (and also did on my SGSI and Galaxy Tab). It feels weird to hunt for the soft menu button (either top or bottom) on my Nexus 7.