Nobody believes Elon anymore.
Goodhart's Law means 2 is approximately always true.
As it happens, we also have a lot of AI benchmarks to choose from.
Unfortunately this means every model basically has a vibe score right now, as the real independent tests are rapidly saturated into the "ooh shiny" region of the graph. Even the people working on e.g. the ARC-AGI benchmark don't think their own test is the last word.