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Comment by Spinnaker_ | Hacker News Reader

You are way off. A single B200 costs $70k. They sell them in racks for over $3mm each. And they have 55% net profit margin.

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55% net profit doesn't include NRE right? The thing about selling fewer, bigger-ticket items is that the non-recurring engineering costs are amortized over fewer sales. Not to say they aren't printing money, but the unit cost to produce the second GPU pales in comparison to the effort to produce the first one.

How many racks are they selling? Is that 50% of their revenue? 10%? How sustainable will that be? I understand AI will probably continue to grow, but can they continue cornering such a market with 55% margins?

Fortunately, I opted to pivot towards ratio of total equity, the per-unit activity was a very rough attempt at moving away from abstractions, and that is obviously one of the many flaws in such an exercise.

I already noted the profit margins are incredibly unstable, so I don’t trust the reported figures where they quadrupled inside of a decade. I’m not suggesting it isn’t real, only that it isn’t possible to pin that 55% down as sustainable for any significant period of time, certainly not the 30-50 years is it would take to realize $4T of value at their current pace.

The answer to "how many racks are they selling" is currently as much as they can manufacture, extended out a year.

It's close to 90% of their revenue. They will sell about $115B this year, $180B in 2026 and $230B in 2027, with margins staying fairly constant. Their only real competitor is Broadcom, who has slightly worse margin on AI chips.

So my broader argument is that their current performance isn’t a reliable indicator for the future, as so much of their current position is circumstantial. Any investments that rely on their sustaining this sort of performance are inherently flawed as a result.

Nvidia had $130b revenue last year, this year (2025) it will breach $200b with >90% of it being AI related.

Estimates for next year are $300b. Sources are rumors about the supply of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs for 2025 and 2026 with estimated ASPs.

Nvidia is selling everything they produce so insiders at supply chains can easily tell how much revenue Nvidia will roughly make.

For the record, most recent graphics revenues were $14.3B, with $116B in compute/networking. [1]

So quite lopsided. That curtails my expectations even further, as this represents a lot of initial infrastructure investments whose long-term expenditures (and viability) remain to be seen.

1. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/NVIDIA-CORPORATIO...

B200, that old thing? :)

B300 has been installed a week or so ago. Good luck to AMD to catch up...

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