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Comment by KaiserPro | Hacker News Reader

Up until recently, I could, if I wanted to have a living doing VFX. I could, if I wanted to, craft new worlds, and get paid for it.

In two years, that won't be the case.

Its the same for virtually all other Arts based job. An economy that currently support say 100% of the people now, will at most be able to support 10-30% in a few years time.

> It's ridiculous to think drawing will become a lost art because of LLM/Diffusal

Map reading is pretty much a dead art now (as someone who leads hikes, I've seen it first hand)

Memorising books/oral history is also a long dead art.

Oral story telling is also a dead art, as is folk music, compared to its peak.

Sure _rich_ people will be able to do all the arts they want. Everyone else won't

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I agree. I am at mid-career. I know many people who dedicated years of their lives learning a craft and building a dignified, somewhat-creative career. I admire these people greatly. The rewards from putting in this effort have disappeared.

For example, I have no knowledge of film editing or what “works” in a sequence, but if I wanted to I could create something more than passable with AI.

My girlfriend is a ceramist. She makes porcelain pieces (https://malinamore.art/) that are sold for hundreds or even thousands of euros.

Why would someone buy a plate off her, when they could get one from IKEA for 1.50 eur?

Yet ceramics is not a dead art. Beats me?

Correct!

but 200 years ago there were loads of ceramic manufactures, employing hundreds of thousands of skilled potters. even 50 years ago, there were thousands of skilled ceramists in the UK. now its single person artisans, like your very talented other half.

Now, that reduction in work force too 200 years and mirrors the industrial revolution. GenAI is looking like its going to speed run that in ~5-7 years

I should be more clear, there is a difference between dead art (memorizing stories) and non viable career for all but 1% of people compared to now. I'm talking about the latter.

there will always be a market for exceptional artists, but what about the other 80-90% of people that used to be able to make a living and now can't anymore? What are they going to do? And without the possibility of a particular profession leading to gainful employment, very few people will even start it, making the funnel smaller and smaller until even exceptional artists won't be able to emerge at all.

We still have amazing master blacksmiths who've reached the pinnacle of the craft despite no economic demand for their skills, so clearly the lack of a market doesn't deter curious people looking for a hobby.

> doesn't deter curious people looking for a hobby.

curious rich people.

I've met a few master blacksmiths who do fair/con circuits, these are often guys who did stuff in their garage while working a regular job until they were able to build a customer base and online presence.

Is that our inspiration? to lose all social stability traveling on the road, treating their hard worked craft as a circus attraction.

And all as a side gig, too. for a craft their forefathers spent entire careers honing. Is that really how a craftman masters their craft?

>Sure _rich_ people will be able to do all the arts they want. Everyone else won't

I miss when rich people spent their time appealing to other rich people with art instead of screwing over all of society.

Well, they always did the latter. But they had their circuses as well. Now it's just cold, hard corporatism.

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