This is what I've figured as well, and even if my password manager claims "eventually we'll support it, once it's available" (https://blog.1password.com/fido-alliance-import-export-passk...), I've been putting it off until the implementation is actually in place.
But the question is when that'll be. Last I've heard about the whole "Risk of lock-in from export blocking" is:
> The general vibe is supportive and language has been added to this effect, though it looks like we haven't done a public working draft in some time so I don't think that's externally visible yet. Also usual caveats about in-progress work subject to change.
https://github.com/fido-alliance/credential-exchange-feedbac...
I guess time will tell. But for now, considering the history of lock-in on the web, it's best to stay away from Passkeys for now, until they figure out a proper way of avoiding it.