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Comment by wklauss | Hacker News Reader

So what if you are wrong? How long do we have to wait to see if you gave your father an inaccurate reading of the situation?

I mean, I remember a lot of the "Apple is at 90$ a share now, it will go down soon" crowd in the '06 in the Yahoo Finance forum posts and I'd love to see them now and sincerely ask them what were they thinking or why did they reach that conclusion back then.

I'm completely serious. This kind of "its the beginning of the end" prophecies are easy to make because you can always say "wait a little bit longer, it will happen" but other than anecdotal evidence, i don't know what prompt you to say "s soon as you have to sue your competition to remain competitive - you're done". Is this a real thing? No company has remained afloat and well after suing a rival?

Is there no way that Apple might be both suing and at the same time innovating in some other way or on any other markets? Does it have to be one or the other?

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Seeing as I bought Apple in 08 I understand your reasoning :D

A few factors lead to my understanding of this situation changing.

1: Mobile saturation - only thing left is more of the same and virtual/augmented reality.

2: Absolute domination of Android and the continual manufacturing dominance of Samsung

3: The move towards commoditizing most consumer electronics thanks to work done by Google and other hardware manufacturers. The iPad was insanely cool when it came out - not so cool when everyone else looks the exact same as you do.

4: Domination of the living room by both Sony and Microsoft - leaving Apple little room for entry.

5: CPU underutilisation - people don't really need to upgrade their computers anymore.

Companies often sue each other, but I doubt the lawsuits are what caused previous companies to fold. Kohler sued Moen on several popular faucet designs that were patented, but I don't see either companies going away any time soon. I can agree with your other factors for argument, but not the lawsuit.

re #2, dominance is an interesting word, and it can mean a few different things.

In terms of percentages of devices in pockets, I believe Android (including all versions) as an OS is doing better than iOS as an OS.

In terms of physical smart phones, I think Apple's phones are in more pockets than any other specific manufacture with their name on the box.

In terms of raw profit in the smartphone industry, Apple dominates.

In terms of people using smartphones like smartphones (downloading apps and using them, actually browsing the internet) instead of like dumbphones (phone calls / txting etc), I believe iOS still dominates (more people use Mobile Safari than they use Android Browser et al).

Manufacturing dominance is an interesting one. Lots of parts for iPhones are made by Samsung, but does that mean Samsung controls iPhone sales? Could Samaung halt iPhone production if they wanted too, or could Apple just go to someone else (with a ramp-up delay presumably).

(I own a Samsung android phone and am happy with it, in case this post comes off pro apple and people wonder about my "allegiances" [because apparently everyone must have one])

> specific manufacture with their name on the box.

Nice little constraint there - Samsung has made the most phones by far.

> raw profit in the smartphone industry, Apple dominates.

Profit really isn't everything and is only important so long as you have a monopoly - afterwards it's all about volume baby! Apple has lost their monopoly on mobile.

> iOS still dominates.

Nope - Android has more activations, downloads and usage than iOS.

I own a Galaxy Nexus.

In terms of raw profit in the smartphone industry, Apple dominates.

Yes, but luxury brands almost never drive any particular market. A lot of the app business these days is about getting an app in front of users as part of some larger business plan and in that world it's the number of eyeballs that count. Once Apple loses that battle then their developer mindshare is going to slide.

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