Comment by SV_BubbleTime | Hacker News Reader

Comment by SV_BubbleTime | Hacker News Reader

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> makers doubles down on ICE cars while the rest of the world moves in the other direction?

Automotive EE here…

As respectfully as I can; you have no idea what you are talking about and neither do the people cheering you on.

These vehicles are not ready for the markets they are (were) being pushed to.

Current electrics do not make sense in specifically hot or cold climates. They do not make sense for hard use. They do not make sense for long trips. They do not make sense for repair.

They make sense in California for people that will keep them only a couple of years until the next status symbol is available.

I own an electric, I work on some. I like the pluses, and am keenly aware of the negatives. I see people storing them outside in snow and it makes me sad for their owners that think they bought an alternative to an ICE vehicle.

EVs today are not alternatives to ICE vehicles, the are compliments.

Fun fact… right now with the systems today, most EVs that will need a new battery, will be totaled by that cost. I have the tools, I’ve been inside the 600V packs that can easily kill you. Mechanics aren’t trained, prepared for, or will accept the risk. These are not 20 year vehicles. They’re basically 8 year vehicles currently.

Disagree with your feelings all you like, I live it.

The country with the highest adoption of EV's in the world is Norway. If they can deal with the cold, so can the US.

I have an EV in Minnesota and it's great. Battery life does take a pretty big hit in winter but that's fine based on how I use it. The real problem is lack of charging infrastructure, not the range.

Good point! I should have been the first to point out that battery tech has different rules in Norway. That a wealthy population half that of New Jersey is a good sample. And that any push for EVs in there reflect only realities of the product’s durability and nothing else like marketing or a shallow veneer of concern for “the environment” while they literally survive on oil. I can believe I didn’t think to use “the highest adaptation of EVs” as good metric.

>I have an EV in Minnesota and it's great.

Today. I’m sure it is. That “big hit” you take in the winter, will only ever get worse. Eh, but maybe I’m wrong! Maybe I should change jobs.

> They’re basically 8 year vehicles currently.

The major EV makers provide an 8 year warranty on their batteries. If EV batteries only lasted 8 years on average, it means they'd be replacing half of them under warranty, which would cost them a fortune and show up on their balance sheet. Tesla & Hyundai aren't bankrupt; batteries last significantly longer than 8 years.

You do not get a battery replaced anytime you want. If you think this is how it works, I suggest you read the fine print about normal wear and tear on “consumable parts”.

I’m sure some mfg was selling 10 year warranties on this gen 1.5 of EVs, and they will take a hit. Believe it or not though, the MBAs that pushed to market to bad fit consumers, yea, they know what they’re doing.

Assuming the announcements from CATL and BYD pan out and battery prices continue on their current trajectory:

By 2030 EV's will cost less than an ICE powered vehicle up front, travel further on a single charge than an ICE with a full tank, cost less to maintain, take about the same amount of time to "refuel" (if you need to do that at all because you can recharge for free at a solar powered home) ... and won't be built in the USA if Ford doesn't do something like this. It probably won't be in the USA even with Ford's efforts.

If you are an automotive EE and live and work in the USA, you've got very little time left to get your finger out. Even if you do and are insanely clever, you've got 3.5 more years of Trump and the GOP playing to the denial crowd, putting up barriers like this to any attempt to change from the status quo. You're also up against a highly industrialised country with four times the number of EE's the USA, some of which are also insanely clever, all being forced to innovate in a highly competitive market fueled by government subsidies.

Personally, if I were you, I'd be assuming the car manufacturing industry in the USA is fucked, and looking for another industry to transition my EE skills into.

Yes, doesn’t quite help current owners though does it?

They will be good. They aren’t now. The entire market is cooling before it turns in to backlash.

>I'd be assuming the car manufacturing industry in the USA is fucked

Ha, well, I guess the most comforting thing I can tell you is that it’s OK you don’t know anything about how cars are actually made. It took Tesla a decade of building them and they still haven’t entire figured it out. No, automotive industry isn’t going anywhere. It’s got its own ups and downs and quirks, but overall we’ll be selling cars in 2050 no question.

EVs are better suited to most commute patterns. The ICE would be the compliment, and the EV, the daily driver.

With better charging infrastructure, that most turns into virtually all.

EVs are good for commutes. Yes. That was not the marketing that has been dropped because it started to backfire.

All the MFGs know electric will be the future.

But, I’m working on truck stuffs for 2034, and guess what? ICE.

isn't it well known that the avg commute is only 35 miles for a consumer? and how many road trips does an avg consumer take in a month? in a year? they can always rent an ICE for specific long journeys. not being able to take your car on a road trip speaks more about infrastructure issues and not the car itself.

Hybrids once again totally undervalued. I don't know why the industry and the consumers are going so hard on pure EVs

Hmm, I drive a PHEV, but full EVs are extremely simple vehicles, as long as you work out charging, they'll need tires eventually, and brake pads (slowly, since they mostly have regen), and that's about it. No fluids (and leaks), no belts, no going to gas stations - pretty compelling for the motorist (and scary for dealerships and repair shops).

I don’t have an EV, but I think I would like one.

Some days I repeat your ideas in my head and think the EV would be great. Other days, I consider the places I see ICE vehicles needing work—- suspension pieces, air conditioning, electronic bits, lights, etc and I think otherwise.

Really, I haven’t had a problem with an ICE engine or transmission in a long time. ( Including my 20 year old crv, which just keeps running. The suspension is getting creaky, though. )

I wish there was more information available about early Teslas and how they’re doing today. I just don’t have a good feel for longevity.

Among other reasons, a lot of it is simply because everyone wants raw battery range and PHEVs are a huge compromise on battery range. Internal combustion engines and gas tanks eat a lot into the weight and volume budgets of a car. You can fit a lot of battery in that weight and volume. We've got to the point where battery density is getting strong enough that a hybrid can't make a combined range as good as a pure EV either in the same weight class.

Another reason is that if you design for the strengths of pure EVs, you can shift all of that weight lower and out of cabin and storage space, including offering new perks such as "frunks" ("front trunks").

A hybrid can't compete on cabin/storage space with a pure EV designed to be a pure EV, and can't quite compete on battery range.

EV range drops to around 90% after 10 years, but so has my 12 year old Mazda. I don't consider it totaled.

Beyond optimistic to the point that it isn’t worth trying to convince you of reality.

20% at 10 years.

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