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What's the best strategy for a full backup and recovery if updating to LTSC goes wrong?

I suggest making a disk-to-image backup of your whole boot drive using clonezilla, to a second external disk.

To test recovery, take a third spare drive, restore to it from the backup image using clonezilla, and replace your boot drive with it. If this boots up well, you could even do your upgrade tests using this spare disk, restoring from the backup file as necessary. Then once you're confident, put your boot drive back in and proceed to upgrade it.

Maybe create a full disk system image? But also upgrade adds a way to restore itself

The thing is that with the LTSC branch, you never get full-version upgrades. That is why it exists.

The full-version upgrade here is LTSC

Ah, OK, I see what you mean. All right then, my mistake.

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