IPOChatter: Track Prospective Tech IPOs | Hacker News Reader

IPOChatter: Track Prospective Tech IPOs

ipochatter.com

16 pointscivilaircraft12 comments

IPOs are probably one of the worst gambles retail investors can make. Almost all of the financials are juiced, and more often than not the stock tanks in the near term post-IPO. You can't really make an informed buying decision, best to let the dust settle.

All value has been extracted by VC before the IPO. All the IPO does is dump the stock on institutions and retail investors.

um, perhaps it's worth reviewing the stock charts for MAANG whose early investors extracted a tiny % of the their total marketcaps.

The subtlety is that you can buy shares on the open market post-IPO, so when you buy "pre-IPO" you're just getting the one-time "pop."

This is trivially proven false, at least as a generalization. Looking at recent-ish IPOs:

Spotify: up 380% since IPO

Service Now: 4,000%

Shopify: 685%

Meta: 1,600%

There are at least 150-250 IPOs every year, good luck picking winners like those four.

If https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPOs-VC-backed.... is right, the last time there were 150+ tech IPOs in a year was 2000 (1992-2000 were all anomalously high). 2021 is the only year to break 100 since then, and only three other years cracked 50.

SpaceX and Stripe in the list despite no intention to go public… just name checks. A bit silly

And they are at the bottom of the list with no near-term prospects which it says when you click them (it’s hard to exclude them in any discussion about big tech IPOs given the general interest in those names).

Maybe more granularity is needed in the scale. I appreciate the ChatGPT or whatever pulling in news to back up the claim, but some have materially different claims yet the same confidence ranking. I do appreciate that even filed docs make a company 4/5 though and not 5/5.

What's going on with Cerebras IPO? Someone is selling a lot of Cerebras shares on private companies marketplaces for the last few months. I have seen shares priced anywhere from $30 to $55.

There are so many startups but this list is so short

Are they close to IPO?

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