Comment by runarberg | Hacker News Reader

Comment by runarberg | Hacker News Reader

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That is not my hypothesis. My hypothesis is about weapons buildup in relation to a) war, and b) treaties and agreements. And it is about trends and likelihoods, not absolutes. To restate my hypothesis. More of (a) = more weapons. More of (b) = fewer weapons.

Sure we can look at Israel, a nation which has a part of tons of international treaties and agreements (albeit fewer then most other nations) and yet is one of the most antagonistic militarized nations in history. So we know there are exception. North Korea might be an example of a country that passes the sniff test of my second hypothesis. Outside of the most international treaties and agreements and also extremely militarized.

But on the other hand, according to my first hypothesis, Israel does pass as an example that contributes to the passing of the sniff test. Israel is probably the country that has seen the most wars and conflicts since World War 2 (maybe USA and Russia/Soviet Union have seen more; I don‘t know), and in accordance to my hypothesis, it is also one of the most militarized nation in the world currently (including one of very few nuclear armed nations).

EDIT: I was just reading an interview with Jim Walsh—a US based nuclear weapons expert, and he seems to agree with me and disagree with you:

> “I think there’s strong scholarly evidence – and certainly, if you look at the politics of the moment – to believe that in this attack, Israel will get the exact opposite of what it wanted, which is Iran is going to decide to go for the bomb.”

https://aje.io/auoxkc?update=3773054

also: https://www.wuft.org/2025-06-13/what-israels-escalation-in-i...

We know that experts are fairly bad at predictions.

Plus we have the latest report from the UN that Iran has been breaching their nuclear agreements.

Iran most likely won't be able to redevelop a nuclear program if the current one is destroyed (and Israel could easily destroy it again when/if they restart)

Iran’s behavior is exactly in line with my hypothesis. They a) were involved in regional conflicts against Israel (including having bombs dropped on them from Israel), and b) had their treaties broken by the USA.

Dropping the treaties and invading Iran does seem to correlate with weapons buildup.

But the weapons have already been built, so at this point its either you act first or just hope.

And hope isn't much of a strategy.

Obviously there is a huge risk here that if Israel fails then Iran will without a doubt push for a bomb.

You seem pretty sure about your beliefs about this, and I doubt there is anything I can say which will convince you otherwise. But when you put forth a testable hypotheses, and experts in the field seem to disagree with your conviction about the matter, perhaps it is time time maybe consider that maybe you are wrong and the experts are right.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/13/iran-to-double-down...

Because it seems fairly obvious to me that if the current nuclear program is taken out the chances that they'll be able to redevelop it in the near to medium term future are extremely low.

How exactly will they be able to do so? They won't be able to protect the sites from further attacks, not to mention losing a significant chunk of the expertise in form of personal along with the materials required.

It's not some Lego set, rebuilding such a project is insanely complex and time consuming, chances of success are very low (assuming Russia, North Korea, etc, don't decide to just hand some over)

Plus, even if they did develop a new program by the time it's done anti missile tech will most likely reach a new phase.

Iran’s “treaty” was they get to build a giant stockpile of conventional weapons in exchange for not building a nuclear weapon… but they get to continue enriching uranium at levels that would make it very easy to quickly ramp up to nukes if they choose. And the treaty expires in 10 years (guess how long ago the treaty was signed).

Not only did they immediately flout the rules and enrich uranium past the levels they were allowed to, the also in defiance of the treaty built secret nuclear reactors that weren’t monitored, and pursued building and stockpiling all the parts necessary to build a nuclear warhead.

Throughout this entire conversation you’ve made many claims that aren’t true at all. You’ve shown extreme bigotry against Jews and Israel.

Iran’s military spending has not significantly increased since 2015. Treaties also have a tendency to be extended or replaced by something similar. Your hypotheses that Iran’s buildup of conventional weapons would increase as a result of the nuclear agreement is wrong.

Most experts agree that the Iran nuclear deal was a success until USA withdrew in 2018.

Iran’s military spending hasn’t decreased significantly since 2015. Which you would expect if your “hypothesis” had any legs. It has in fact increased. Thus again disproving your spurious claims.

Please point to these supposed experts, everything I saw from that time was that only those naive enough to believe a pack of lies claimed the nuclear deal would work, while everyone else was pointing out all the ways Iran was totally subverting it.

2015: 10.38 Billion USD (inflation adjusted)

2023: 10.28 Billion USD (inflation adjusted)

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.CD?location...

Expert opinion:

* https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2025/04/iran-nuclear-...

* https://nationalinterest.org/blog/energy-world/us-iran-nucle...

Note that neither tout the success of 2015 directly (why would they, it failed after USA withdrew) but rather are proposing a new deal would build upon stuff that worked in 2015:

> In 2015, the JCPOA’s durability stemmed in part from expert-level dialogue between scientists, including US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz and Ali Akbar Salehi, then-head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. Reestablishing that kind of technical cooperation is essential to crafting a framework that can both verify compliance and contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Your own data shows expenditures rose for 2 years after the signing of the treaty… and once the US pulled out they dropped precipitously. That’s ignoring the context of what was happening at the time namely, Iran directly supporting the genocidal Syrian regime.

Those “experts” don’t at all support your claims that the 2015 deal was or could be successful. We’re not currently discussing the deal that might be made, as details are changing too rapidly for anything they said last week to be relevant anymore (e.g. many of the scientists who were pursuing a second jewish genocide are now dead). We’re discussing whether the 2015 deal was viable immediately after it was signed… based on your own data and idea (treaty = declining military spending) it appears it wasn’t.

Again. My hypothesis is about trends and probability, not absolutes. One datapoint is not enough to prove or disprove anything.

I purposefully tried to find the most up to date opinions on the matter while still before Israels attacks. But here is what experts were saying back in March 2018

> Iran is Implementing Nuclear-related JCPOA Commitments, Director General Amano Tells IAEA Board

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iran-is-implementing-nu...

> Collapse of Iran nuclear deal would be ‘great loss,’ says UN atomic agency chief

https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/03/1004112

Lol k. So you opinion is that maybe if the rest of the world lets Iran build up a huge stockpile of weapons and enrich uranium 50% of the way to a nuke, they’ll not be as evil?

I guess that’s an opinion someone could have…

Regarding your sources, yes those are the naive experts I was talking about. The same ones who allowed Iran to build a secret facility right under their nose, the same one that finally admitted years too late that actually Iran is far out of compliance. They’re about as effective as UNIFIL.

Iran just withdrew from the NPT. So once again, your high minded ideas don’t have any basis in reality. This comes on the heels of the IAEA finally deciding to acknowledge the reality that Iran has not been in compliance for quite a while.

Meanwhile you felt your personal opinion should be what decides the fate of half the world’s Jews.

I wasn’t going to engage with you further since you’ve gone pretty far into personal attacks against me, but I do need to correct this.

Iran has not (as of today) withdrawn from the non-proliferation treaty. All that has happened (as of now) is that the Iranian parliament is currently preparing a bill to withdraw, nothing more. Parliament will have to introduce and approve it, and the government will need to enforce it before Iran finally withdraws, and we don‘t know whether any of that will happen.

Iran’s current government (including the foreign ministry) is on record being against nuclear weapons, and the Supreme leader seems pretty much against them, whether or not that is a lie remains to be seen.

https://thearabweekly.com/iran-threatens-leave-nuclear-non-p...

Aside: The above link provides a calm summary of version events since USA withdrew from JCPOA, including the fact that Iran was in compliance until 2019; I advice you to read it and reevaluate your stance against treaties as an effective way to disarm states.

What I am arguing here is that the fact that a nuclear armed nation is now attacking Iran will increase the probability that Iran will eventually get nuclear weapons, while negotiating a treaty will do the opposite. Israel is definitely showing Iran a good reason for pursue nuclear weapons, and the military hawks inside Iran’s leadership definitely have a much stronger case now. Hopefully they will still fail at convincing the supreme leader of taking further steps in acquiring them, and remaining a member of the non-proliferation treaty.

Finally, a question. You seem to not believe that treaties are an effective way to disarm states. Why do you care whether or not Iran is a member of the non-proliferation treaty? According to your beliefs, it wouldn’t matter either way. Iran would be equally likely to get the bomb inside or outside the non-proliferation treaty.

I haven’t personally attacked anyone. I pointed out some egregious behavior you engaged in and suggested that you refrain from doing that in the future. But it seems even in this comment you again engaged in that same bigoted behavior. It’s very disappointing. I’m really sorry that it’s so difficult for you to discuss a topic without showing extreme prejudice and in some cases outright hostility. Again this is not a personal attack, but rather me calling out inappropriate and offensive language.

I will engage one last time but I caution you to please reconsider your approach. If you continue to make such racist comments I will simply leave the conversation as I don’t like interacting with hateful people.

The article you shared is from a publication that ain’t known for fair and balanced coverage, but even there they admit that Iran pursuing nuclear power has pushed SA to do the same. Once again showing that it’s not about how many countries maintain nuclear capability but rather how stable their governments are. Belaying the fact that treaties are basically meaningless unless everyone else believes you will keep to them. And guess what, the majority of humanity believes Iran will not keep its word on anything. Even today they were shouting “Death To America, Death to Israel”. A people screaming for blood should be believed not coddled, especially when they openly act out those calls for mass murder. So far they’ve attacked multiple large apartment buildings and a school for mentally impaired children none of which were anywhere near any military targets.

For the record, this is what the experts are saying now:

> For #Israel to attack #Iran including its nuclear facilities (prohibited by international law) and for #Trump to ask Iran for “total surrender” and forgo a treaty right (uranium enrichment) in a clear act of national humiliation, on suspicion that it is developing nuclear weapons (possessed by both #Israel and #US), suspicion that does not constitute an “imminent threat” as confirmed by all western intelligence agencies and was dealt with through negotiations in #JCPOA agreement of 2015 which the US withdrew from in 2018

> To rely on force and not negotiations is a sure way to destroy the #NPT and the nuclear non proliferation regime (imperfect as it is) and sends a clear message to many countries that their “ultimate security” is to develop nuclear weapons !!!

https://x.com/ElBaradei/status/1935041599605539211

ElBaradei won the Nobel Price in 2005 for his work on nuclear non-proliferation. I‘m pretty sure he knows more about this than you or I.

Ah yes a Jew hater, won a noble peace prize. The “most prestigious” of noble prizes. Only handed out to those who really accomplish great things.

You do your argument no favors linked to a twitter account that openly spreads blood libels and invents lies.

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