SF Housing Madness. Tired of Screaming into the Void | Hacker News Reader

SF Housing Madness. Tired of Screaming into the Void

2 pointsCompzilla27 comments

I've been casually monitoring the SF market, hoping logic might eventually return. Then I saw this:

579 Belvedere St., a top-floor condo (2BR/1BA, 930 sqft), just sold for $1.5M ($200k over asking). Meanwhile, better units with more space or an extra bath sit for weeks unsold.

Am I missing something? I know this area is desirable, but $1.5M for a 1-bath condo with no garage feels like 2021 energy. I need to vent!

Genuinely asking… are people still panic-buying? Is this just wealth inertia? Tech optimism? Delusion?

And yeah, I’m considering starting a “Wall of Shame” documenting these types of sales. Exhibit 1: this one.

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I recall as a tourist visiting some 25 yrs ago and was shocked by how much a breakfast was at IHOP this was in the Golden Park area and than was more shocked when down the street at a realtors office with the for sale listings on the window and there was a listing for a 'unit' for 350,000 and reading further it was a garage made into some sort of condo Has SF always been wacky overpriced?

>Has SF always been wacky overpriced?

It's not just SF, it's California. Even going back 40 years, almost any place between Bay Area and San Diego that's within 50 miles of the ocean and is not rural[0] has been significantly more expensive than national average.

[0]unless it has an ocean view

It has always been a bit wackadoodle, but I remember 22-23 years ago, prices were high, but within earth's atmosphere.

I live in SF, find it a beautiful city but I’m not particularly attached to it, so I rent.

The area where that property is located is really good, I live nearby. I think the property is worth that amount, since someone paid for it in a competitive market, that terrace with views of Sutro tower is spectacular. It’s also a good deal compared to its previous 2019 sale price ($1.4M), so it’s likely it was intentionally priced below market, the owner never meant to sell it at the asking price.

The city just has so, so many wealthy people, it’s difficult to comprehend. I, a complete nobody, know a lot of people in their 20s with $10M+ net worth. I’m in my 30s with a $6M liquid net worth and I’m the least successful in my peer group. It’s not unreasonable to drop that much in a beautiful city with such a scarce inventory. I don’t think that property value will significantly drop any time soon, if ever.

You are entitled to your own opinions and venting, but it might be more productive to just vote with your feet and leave, if this is too frustrating to deal with.

The housing market in SF is definitely an indication of concentrated wealth.

That said - relatively few participants are needed to price the market. This is the case for housing, stocks (where ETF-holder do not perform pricing), etc.

You are also likely not a nobody, not even in SF terms, with $6M liquid (assuming that there are quite a bit of investments on top of that). This would either require some successful speculative investments, top-level position in a successful company, inheritance, or successful exits. only inheritance with a long frugal lineage would yield a wealthy nobody.

I appreciate that you and your peer group are doing well, but saying, “if you don’t like it, leave” kind of proves my point. It illustrates a bit of tech wealth blindness. My mother always told me... "just because you can doesn't mean you should." Maybe those with such means shouldn't be so quick to just contribute to the affordability crisis and force out families who have lived there for generations.

The city has become a luxury good, a playground for the wealthy, not a place for the other classes to live. That’s the problem I’m trying to document, not just complain about. By the way, my daughter was born in this city. She just graduated from a very good school, but she will still never be able to afford this place as long as people like you maintain such a callous attitude about those who came before them.

> as long as people like you maintain such a callous attitude about those who came before them.

I think you might be barking up the wrong tree here since I just rent a very modest apartment here and I’m not going to ever buy a property, nor vote against any housing shortage policies. My suggestion was purely practical.

But what would you expect exactly? The Bay Area has a massive marketing machine that screams to the world: “come here, make big bucks quickly and easily!”, which is true. Do you expect people not to take that bargain? People will always be looking to improve their situation, I came from the other side of the world just like many others.

It should be up to the government to either limit the inflow of people (via immigration control or other means), massively increase housing inventory or any other solution (I’m not an economist so I don’t know what’s the right one).

The condo you listed just sold for less than its last 2019 sale value when accounting for the massive inflation rate of these past 5 years. Thinking that it was a bubble-driven price is really not the right attitude, in my opinion. It’s how much it’s worth, and the market confirmed it.

I get your point that you’re not the buyer, and you’re not the one inflating prices. That said, if you are worth as much as you say, you are clearly not middle income with average resources.

You say I’m barking up the wrong tree, but the tree in question is a system that’s pricing out entire generations. Are we just supposed to shrug and say “that’s how it works”? This is capitalism I know, but that doesn't mean it's right.

The fact that something sells doesn’t mean it’s justified, it means the top 1% still has the liquidity to win every bidding war. That’s not “the market”... that’s an engineered, artificial scarcity propped up by investment groups, zoning failure, and captured politics.

My goal isn’t to change you... it’s to chronicle and question what's become accepted practice.

It's probably investment driven. I lived in a couple buildings with very bad landlord companies that basically didn't care about the conditions of the building. I had to call city authorities because there was a rat infestation. Meanwhile I was paying nearly 2K and this was 5-10 years ago.

There's something deeply wrong with that city, and everyone is a kind of in a trance trying to look away because they're all in the same political team or something like that. People suffer willingly as a form of weird self-sacrifice, so there is no accountability for the leadership that makes bad decision after bad decision (although of course they are making good decisions for the people who have the status and money).

It seems totally seems plausible that investment groups could be responsible for this... the heaping on of more misery to the crippling affordability crisis there. Do you think they would stop if someone pointed out that they were definitely doing civic harm? That last bit was not to be taken seriously.

There's definitely corruption with the landlord companies and the local government to some extent, I'm just not sure exactly how and don't know much about it, but it's clear the priorities of the city do not favor the average SF citizen. The only way to deal with the corruption has to be holding the leadership of the city accountable through mass change in voting. Otherwise the same people keep running the place and it will never change.

So yes, pointing it out and exposing them is probably part of the solution but it would only be a small part. I think people need to break out of their unwavering loyalty in order to hold the system accountable for any change to happen.

If you've got enough wealth to put a down payment even on 1M, not really much sympathy here for this "madness", because you could just move to a cheaper area and quit whatever job requires being in the SF area.

Yes, good point. Even a healthy correction won't restore affordability. A nice start would be for those with this kind of wealth to stop overpaying just because they have some deep-seated desire to live in SF.

Ask yourself if your quality of life is improved by the increased cost of living in that area.

I'm not about to move to Texas, but it is amazing how easily you can save a huge amount of money just by opening up to other locations that would make you happy.

Housing prices don't go down unless terrible thing happen; even then, sometimes they go up.

I didn't list the address of the person that outbid me on my last house purchase, though. Maybe you should consider not posting the addresses unless you have a good reason.

Well, you are entitled to your opinion. That said, I’m not trying to shame individual buyers. It is more just documenting sales that reflect a broken or speculative market. I think that is a valid "reason."

All the addresses I mention are public and already on Zillow/Redfin, along with all the other details. I’m not listing out bidder names or license plates... just citing public sales. It’s less about the buyer (who is not mentioned) and more about how far from fundamentals pricing has drifted.

> And yeah, I’m considering starting a “Wall of Shame” documenting these types of sales. Exhibit 1: this one

Perhaps your wording wasn't well considered if you're not trying to shame buyers by listing addresses.

Fair enough. I see your point... probably a poor turn of phrase. I will avoid using it if I do post such a chronicle of transactions.

High paying jobs come and go over the decades. Mortgages and associated lifestyle expenses are very hard to get rid of in the short time a major pay change can occur.

If the price is off-putting, let your senses guide you and be off-put by it and find somewhere that makes you excited and filled with a sense of opportunity for you -- and be sure it's well within your resources so it doesn't pinch immediately the second taxes go up, something leaks, another thing breaks, and the retaining wall needs work.

Home ownership costs so much more than you expect; buy well within your means if you want a happy home lifestyle.

Good luck on your house search. It will work out if you're open, but I found I had to be more open than I thought.

If you could take your own job and lifestyle with you then that opens up the world for you.

This is the truth. Time to find out who you are and spend time with those you cherish is worth more than any neighborhood.

I'm still not moving to Texas, but there are amazing places within a short drive of where you're considering that will free you from a lifestyle chained to a high paying job.

I hate commutes. Even though I somehow got lucky to work from home, I don’t want my RTO wife to have to commute by bus more than 30 minutes to work (and I could always be called back to office, so I’m not going to risk living in Bend). It is just not worth it to forgo the high paying job since I find (at least the ones I’ve had) less stressful than the lower paying ones. I’m also in the city I’ve always wanted to be in, so I haven’t made other trade off.

Cities are priced high for reasons. If you don’t need or can’t get what the cities provide, then it is definitely not worth it.

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The value is the transaction price at in an arms length transaction.

Go ask the buyers why they paid what they paid. Knock on doors, talk to realtors. All real estate is local.

Yes! I would love to hear someone explain to me how they justified buying such an overvalued piece of real estate. How they allowed themselves to enter into a bidding war for a condominium. I mean this type of real estate is the most vulnerable to volatility, even in SF. If condos aren't risky enough, what about tenancies in common (yikes). SFHs are going to be much more stable of course.

PG says you need to move out there for the startup culture but stuff like this is why I'd rather be homeless on the East Coast.

I’m not sure if I’m taking your statement too literally, but you’re much more likely to freeze to death being homeless on the East coast.

I personally think an earthquake is what will tank prices. (If there’s one thing I took away from Covid it’s that people in America can get scared and flee to what feels safe… rationally or irrationally)

Now predicting when the big one hits, good luck

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