China's EV dominance is a result of local governments investing and buying from local businesses.
It would be the same with Russia&China. They will receive money from the governments and will sell to local buyers and will aim to expand to foreign markets.
As I said, most AI talent is not American but it is concentrated there. Give them a reason to be somewhere else, some will be somewhere else.
Why not ? First of all there would be plenty of incentives for EU companies to compete with one another (and plenty of capital flowing to them as the European market is big enough), then there would be competition with US actors in the rest of the world. That's exactly how the Asian economic model has been built: Japan, Taiwan, South Korea all have used protectionism + export-based subsidies to create market leaders in all kind of domains (from car manufacturing to electronics and shipbuilding).
How did you come up to that conclusion? We don't have access to an alternate universe where the Chinese tech market was open. There is a real possibility that it would have been far ahead had it been open.
- Regulatory friendliness (eg. DJI)
- Non-enforcement of foreign patents (eg. LiFePO4 batteries)
- Technology transfer through partnerships with domestic firms
- Government support for industries deemed to be in the national interest