So today is the same AI I used last year. And based on current trajectory same I will use next year.
the best bugs are the ones that arent found for 5 years
There are many reasons to believe LLMs in particular are not going anywhere fast.
We need major breakthroughs now, and “chain of thought” is not one.
It's like if we'd said the Youtube we used in 2015 was going to be the worst Youtube we'd ever use.
I do believe the LLMs we're using today are the best they're going to be - for the reasons you've highlighted.
Some superior tech might displace them, but LLMs as they are seem much more likely to get worse.
I'm encouraging people to make any important queries right now and save the results. For example "which books should i read on X" - right now you get good answers, in the future it'll be enshittified.
Future AI's will be more powerful but probably influenced to push users to spend money or have a political opinion. So they may enshitify...
Ultimately these machines work for the people who paid for them.