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Comment by ceejayoz | Hacker News Reader

There's approximately zero percent chance of this actually happening.

Yeah, pretty sure that they'll just nationalize SpaceX to prevent it from happening, but not gonna lie, it'd be funny to see how USA government would have to crawl back to Russia for ISS resupply.

They could always ask the ESA to revive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated_Transfer_Vehicle , but human access might be more of a problem.

They don’t need ESA for unmanned supplies:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cygnus_(spacecraft)

While that exists, it's definitely on the small side. In particular, for reboosting, it's likely inadequate.

do not underestimate the ego (and resultant stupidity) of either musk or trump

I dunno, if Musk chickens out I'd expect Trump to try to punish him by cancelling it anyway.

I don't see Trump caring what happens to the ISS, up to and including uncontrolled re-entry.

Should call his bluff and move to accelerate deorbiting of the ISS. Can always nationalize SpaceX for national security if needed.

Musk calls for deorbiting ISS “as soon as possible” - https://spacenews.com/musk-calls-for-deorbiting-iss-as-soon-... - February 20th, 2025

They're already selling Dragon flights to private citizens and organizations. They'll keep sending Isaacman up again if he'll pay for it.

They might not do the extra stuff NASA wants anymore, but they're currently the only US option to get astronauts to space.

SpaceX is dead without NASA and government contracts.

Starlink is Tesla all over again - projections of profitability going exponential, only to be met with reality some years later.

SpaceX will get nationalized under the Defense Production Act long before it's allowed to die.

Yes 100% agree. Just wanted to point out that this is not a normal commercial relationship.

NASA / DOD needs SpaceX (for now) and if Musk thinks he can just stop working with / for them and continue his rocket business as usual, he's getting really delusional.

They did it to Iridium when it went bankrupt. DOD basically got it running again with a bunch of money.

> They might not do the extra stuff NASA wants anymore, but they're currently the only US option to get astronauts to space.

Yes, but does Trump care?

I bought DXYZ during the dip from all this. I feel the same way.

When does Trump nationalize SpaceX?

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