I had been incrementally building this complex workflow using mkosi. At some point I sat down with a pencil and asked myself "ok, what am I building here, what's the ideal endgame?" I sketched out the system I wanted and pondered it for a bit... And then went "wait, have I just described NixOS?" And yeah basically it's exactly what I wanted and more.
Funnily enough, this article is _exactly_ what I need as I haven't exactly figured out the best way to install NixOS on a totally blank machine. (So far I have been muddling through what's described in the "Manual installation" section and, yeah it sucks). The exception is for Raspberry Pi where it's straightforward to just build an SD card image from a flake.
I had _guessed_ that something like the "Building your own installer" section would work, but because of the nature of Nix I never really feel 100% confident that something is gonna work as I hope until I physically try it. Usually it does. But still, this is a very big downside of Nix!