This is not a matter of whether AI will replace humans whole sale. There are two more predominant effects:
1. You’ll need fewer humans to do the same task. In other forms of automation, this has led to a decrease in employment. 2. The supply of capable humans increases dramatically. 3. Expertise is no longer a perfect moat.
I’ve seen 2. My sister nearly flunked a coding class in college, but now she’s writing small apps for her IT company.
And for all of you who poo poo that as unsustainable. I became proficient in Rust in a week, and I picked up Svelte in a day. I’ve written a few shaders too! The code I’ve written is pristine. All those conversations about “should I learn X to be employed” are totally moot. Yes APL would be harder, but it’s definitely doable. This is an example of 3.
Overall, this will surely cause wage growth to slow and maybe decrease. In turn, job opportunities will dry up and unemployment might ensue.
For those who still don’t believe, air traffic controllers are a great thought experiment—they’re paid quite nicely. What happens if you build tools so that you can train and employ 30% of the population instead of just 10%?