Elon Musk's plans to go to Mars next year are toast

I think that site is like Fight Club.

The last Starship test flight failed - now SpaceX is probably not going to make the Mars launch window next year that they were aiming to hit. It will also probably not meet the goal NASA had to return to the moon in 2027.

Archived here: https://archive.ph/z1ChR

One problem is that you can only get to Mars every two years or so

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration_of_Mars#Launch_win...

and if they miss the Nov 2026 window (about 1.5 year from now) they have to wait another 2 years. They have to get Starship to orbit, then they have to perfect the orbital refueling process. They don't have much room for error.

One obvious mission plan for refueling is that the orbits line up every 24 hours so you can launch starship A into LEO and then launch starship B 12-20 days in a row to refuel A. I think you might be able to do better than that if you have some crossrange. I've also heard talk along the lines that starship A gets refueled at LEO, gets launched to a HEO parking orbit, then other starships that are fueled multiple times meet up with it in HEO. One way or another it is a lot of flights and if starship B blows up you'd better have starship C in the wings and a few days of leeway assuming B didn't take out the launchpad with it.

Starship has lots of problems of its own. If there was one of those chopstick thingies on the Moon or Mars it would have no problem landing. Maybe if there was a colony there would be chopsticks but you're going to have to bootstrap your way there. Without it, objects like the Moon and Mars are covered with boulders and a really tall spacecraft with flimsy legs and rocket engines sticking out of the bottom where they could get smashed looks risky. Also SpaceX's control system runs everything from the ground by remote control which is great in Earth orbit but will not fly around Mars and probably not even the moon -- thus they'll have to develop an autonomous control system more like Boeing's failed space capsule.

Not like those problems can't be overcome with time, but time is not on your side when Mars is concerned. So far Starship has been about rapid iterations but if martian colonists need a replacement part they could wait for years to get it. If they don't stick the landing the first time you have to wait two years for another try. If you were designing a mission plan for Mars colonization it would have to be built with having physical twins on and around the Earth and Moon where you could thoroughly test things.

Myself if I had something like Starship working I'd build a flashy space hotel in LEO. I computed that the atmosphere for a small Bernal sphere could be sent to LEO in 15 Starship loads of LN2, with the same number of launches NASA hopes to land a few tons on the moon and maybe get it back.