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This has been about 50% of the time my experience as well. There are very good SWE who know how to use ML in real systems, and then there are the others who believe through and through it will replace well understood systems developed by subdomain experts.

As a concrete example, when I worked at Amazon, there were several really good ML-based solutions for very real problems that didn't have classical approaches to lean on. Motion prediction from grid maps, for example, or classification from imagery or grid maps in general. Very useful and well integrated in a classical estimation and control pipeline to produce meaningful results.

OTOH, when I worked at a startup I won't name, I was berated over and over by a low-level manager for daring to question a learning-based approach for, of all things, estimating orientation of a stationary plane over time. The entire control pipeline for the vehicle was being fed flickering, jumping, adhoc rotating estimate for a stationary object because the entire team had never learned anything fundamental about mapping or filtering, and was just assuming more data would solve the problem.

This divide is very real, and I wish there was a way to tease it out better in interviewing.

Your stationary plane example highlights a divide I've seen across my work experience in different domains; teams defaulting to ML when fundamental engineering would work better.

I'm curious: do you think there's any amount of high-quality data that could make the learning-based approach viable for orientation estimation? Or would it always be solving the wrong problem, regardless of data volume and delivery speed?

My sense is that effective solutions need the right confluence of problem understanding, techniques, data, and infrastructure. Missing any one piece makes things suboptimal, though not necessarily unsolvable.

One opportunity for human-designed systems to excel over machine learning is the case where treating ML as a black box has caused the designers to pose an impossible problem. From the parent comment, it sounds like each additional measurement was being related to a new estimate by the ML system, while the standard technique could integrate measurements over time (that's called filtering).

> I've seen across my work experience in different domains; teams defaulting to ML when fundamental engineering would work better.

In my current field (predictive maintenance), there are (in)famous examples and papers using multi-layer deep networks for solving anomaly detection problems, where a "single" line of basic Matlab code (standard deviations, etc.) performs better than the proposed AI solution. Publish or perish, I guess...

The lack of knowledge of and application of fundamental engineering principles is a huge issue in the Software world. While its great that people can pick up programming and learn and get a job, I have noticed this is often correlated with people not having a background in Hard Science and Mathematics. Even amongst CS graduates there are a lot of who seem to get through without any mathematical or engineering maturity. Having a couple people in a team with Physics, Mathematics, Mechanical or Electrical Engineering backgrounds, etc. can really be a big asset as they can fight back and offer a classical solution that will work nearly 100% of the time. Whereas someone who just did a Bootcamp and no formal scientific training seems less likely to be able to grasp or have prior knowledge of classical approaches.

I think that this is one reason Software has such a flavor of the month approach to development.

> So, for MLE, working with AI that isn't always reliable, is a norm. They are accustomed to thinking in terms of probabilities, distributions, and acceptable levels of error. Applying this mindset to a coding assistant that might produce incorrect or unexpected code feels more natural. They might evaluate it like a model: "It gets the code right 80% of the time, saving me effort, and I can catch the 20%."

And given the current climate, the MLE's feel empowered for force their mindset onto others groups where it doesn't fit. I once heard a senior architect at my company ranting about that after a meeting: my employer sells products where accuracy and correctness have always been a huge selling point, and the ML people (in a different office) didn't seem to get that and thought 80-90% correct should be good enough for customers.

I'm reminded of the arguments about whether a 1% fatality rate for a pandemic disease was small or large. 1 is the smallest integer, but 1% of 300 million is 3 million people.

This is where I find having a disconnect between an ML team and product team is so broken. Same for SE to be fair.

Accuracy rates, F1, anything, they're all just rough guides. The company cares about making money and some errors are much bigger than others.

We'd manually review changes for updates to our algos and models. Even with a golden set, breaking one case to fix five could be awesome or terrible.

I've given talks about this, my classic example is this somewhat imagined scenario (because it's unfair of me to accuse people of not checking at all):

It's 2015. You get an update to your classification model. Accuracy rates go up on a classic dataset, hooray! Let's deploy.

Your boss's, boss's, boss gets a call at 2am because you're in the news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-33347866

Ah. Turns out improving classifications of types of dogs improved but... that wasn't as important as this.

Issues and errors must be understood in context of the business. If your ML team is chucking models over the fence you're going to at best move slowly. At worst you're leaving yourself open to this kind of problem.

You're talking about deterministic behavior vs. probabilistic behavior and yes some discourse lines up with what you describe.

I don't think it's the case with this article. It focuses on the meta-concerns of people doing software engineering and how AI fits into that. I think he hits it on the head when he talks about Program Entropy.

A huge part of building a software product is managing entropy. Specifically, how you can add more code and more people while maintaining a reasonable forward velocity. More specifically, you have to maintain a system so you make it so all of those people understand how all the pieces fit together and how to add more of those pieces. Yes, I can see AI one day making this easier but right now, it oftentimes makes entropy worse.

There are so many use cases where 90% correct answers are absolutely not enough. Nobody would have much of a problem with that, if a flurry of people with vested interests wouldn't try to convince us all that that is not the case, and AI is good to go for absolutely everything. The absurdity of this assumption is so outrageous that it becomes even hard to counter it with logic. It's just a belief-based narrative whose delivery has been highly successful so far in commanding insane investments, and as a travestee for profit-oriented workforce optimizations.

Who is actually saying that AI is always 100 percent right?

There are disclaimers everywhere.

Sure there are usecases AI can't handle, but doesn't mean it is not massively valuable. There is not single thing in the World that can handle all usecases.

SWE use probability all the time. Rearchitect around that race condition or reduce its footprint? How long will this database call make, p99? A/B tests. Etc.

The bigger the system, the more bigger the probability aspect gets too. What are the chances of losing at the data copies at the same time, what are the chances is all slots being full and the new connection dropped, what are the chances of data corruption from bitrot? You can mostly ignore that in toy examples, but at scale you just have chaos and money you can throw at it to reduce it somewhat.

I’m currently getting my masters in AI (lots of ML) and as a SWE, it’s definitely a new muscle I’m growing. At the same time, I can think about MLE in isolation and how it fits within the larger discipline of SWE. How I can build robust pipelines, integrate models into applications, deploy models within larger clusters, etc. I think there are many individuals which are pure MLE and lack the SWE perspective. Most critically, lots of ML people in my program aren’t computer people. They are math people or scientists first. They can grok the ML but grokking SWE without computer affinity is difficult. I see true full-stack being an understanding of low-level systems, back-front architecture, deployment, and now MLE. Just need to find someone who will compensate me for bringing all that to the table. Most postings are still either for SWE or PhD in MLE. Give me money!! I know it all

Yea, the problem is that most people expect things to be absolute and correct outside of engineering.

I love the gray areas and probabilities and creativity of software...but not everyone does.

So the real danger is in everyone assuming the AI model is, must be, and always will be correct. They misunderstand the tool they are using (or directing others to use).

Hmm. It's like autopilot on the Tesla. You aren't supposed to take your hands off the wheel. You're supposed to pay attention. But people use it incorrectly. If they get into an accident, then people want to blame the machine. It's not. It's the fault of person who didn't read the instructions.

I often wonder if society will readjust its expectation of programs or even devices. Historically, machines of all kinds were difficult to design and manufacture.. the structure was hard set (hence the name) but at the same time, society fantasize about adaptive machines, hyper adaptive, multipurpose, context-aware.. which if pushed high, is not far from the noisy flexibility of ML.

Yup. All the people I've worked with through my career post 2020 (AI/ML types) have been AI first and AI native. They're the first users of cursor - a year before it went mainstream.

Sorry not sorry that the rest of the world has to look over their shoulders.

Based on my experience as an MLE I would never use any of the current 'AI' offerings, so whatever bias you are suggesting is very recent.

i agree; but perhaps also it is the difference between managers and SWE? The former (SWE team leaders included) can see that engineers aren't perfect. The latter are often highly focused on determinism (this works/doesn't) and struggle with conflicting goals.

Through a career SWEs start rigid and overly focused on the immediate problem and become flexible/error-tolerant[1] as they become system (mechanical or meat) managers. this maps to an observation that managers like AI solutions - because they compare favourably to the new hire - and because they have the context to make this observation.

[1] https://grugbrain.dev/#:~:text=grug%20note%20humourous%20gra...