Hacker News Reader

Comment by bgwalter | Hacker News Reader

These trucks will also not form unions or start trucker protests like in Canada.

They'll centralize and monopolize yet another middleman's dream and create the physical Internet, with vast opportunities for rent seeking and wealth extraction.

You will not own the trucks: They'll be rented to you, you won't be able to repair them. If they malfunction, you'll have to talk to some centralized Email or "AI" based customer "service".

Somehow, the monopolists will extract as much money as you previously spent on a driver.

It may not be a monopoly in the beginning, but it will consolidate to at least an oligopoly soon.

View on HN

If this scenario plays out as you describe, what would stop companies simply continuing to hire truckers and use regular trucks?

You see, they will be cheaper at first. Or maybe they don't even need to if demand outpaces supply. And then slowly companies begin to rely on them. And once the industry is completely destroyed, they will slowly up their margins. I know, unheard of.

In a mostly driverless industry there will be protocols and standards a human driver will not be able to fulfill. Using humans in these workflows will be a nuisance.

Human driver safety time limits alone will create a major price differentiation. https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/regulations/hours-service/summary-...

Being able to 1.9x equipment utilization rates (or cut transit times over 21 hours) will guarantee adoption.

regulatory capture?

This is muddled thinking. Automated trucks will lower costs for everyone.

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/10/10/spoons-shovels/

> If that digging would give work to a hundred men with shovels and picks, why not get a thousand men and give them teaspoons with which to dig up the dirt?”

Do you have evidence that's specific to the automated truck situation?

Stereotypical anti-luddite quotes are not thinking. Automation in construction has not led to lower prices, on the contrary, prices are exploding. Automation in car manufacturing has not led to lower prices, cars are still expensive. Automation in health care didn't prevent prices from exploding.

If a monopoly emerges, by definition control and prices are centralized. And I really don't want broligarchs that follow the agenda 2025 to control the food chain.

Automation has led to lower prices of commodity widgets like for example 4K TVs.

It doesn't result in lower prices of items and services necessary for survival in modern society which are also subject to regulatory capture like real estate, healthcare and education.

In the case of the latter, all advance in technology and automation move to the pockets of shareholders but the cost to the consumer stays the same or even goes up once oligopolies form.

Mostly if they are manufactured in Asia and if there is real competition (which is the case in Asia).

Much hailed privatization and automation of the postal services in. e.g., Germany has not led to lower prices. 30 years ago mailmen were literally civil servants with expensive salaries. Privatization and automation has just redirected the money to the stock holders.

There will be no real competition in trucking once a few large corporations divide up the pie and get special permissions to operate.

> Automation in car manufacturing has not led to lower prices

You can currently get cars for the inflation-adjusted price of a Model T (~$20,000). https://www.cars.com/articles/here-are-the-10-cheapest-new-c...

And they include a lot more standard features.

Cars aren't cheaper because Americans will buy more expensive cars. The average new car purchase price is up around ~$45,000.

(I think buying a new car is dumb, but hey, I'm not the market)

> Automated trucks will lower costs for everyone.

Hopefully so, but it’s not a given. Factors like consolidation, collusion, anti-competitive regulations, etc all can lead to keeping prices high.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com