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Comment by mariusor | Hacker News Reader

According to Wikipedia[1] you are quite off base as Muslims form only 6.5% of the population as opposed to Christians (46.2%) and a-religious (37.2%).

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_the_United_Kingdom

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I said "on the way to".

> Between 2001 and 2009, the Muslim population increased almost 10 times faster than the non-Muslim population.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom?wp...

Granted 2009 was a while ago but they're still the fastest growing population in the UK by a lot.

You are not making your point any favour. It is right that everyone is calling you out for your xenophonbic BS.

If it grew 10x between 2001 and 2009 (starting from a very small base), then between 2009 and 2023 it grew by only 0.3x (see graph below).

So rate of growth went from 10x to 0.3x in around a decade, this is a hugely significant deceleration. It actually implies muslim community as portion of population is heading lower.

https://new.islamchannel.tv/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/63860...

You're not comparing the same stats. The original stat was growth rate compared to the rest of the country. Islam's overall growth rate has been fairly steady for decades, although admittedly it has slowed, but at a rate that could conceivably stop above Christianity, which your chart shows is decreasing about as rapidly as Islam is rising. I think it's reasonable to project that it may settle below Islam eventually. Realistically, there will be continued backlash by native English and that may temper immigration, though even if immigration stops, the birth rate of Muslims in the UK is still much higher than native population.

However - if we're including atheist then clearly that'll be the majority position.

This is using the same flawed logic that has had people shouting about overpopulation since the 70's: assuming current* population growth rate will continue indefinitely

* well, not even current. 15+ year old

The difference is that this is a change in the demographics of a population, not the overall growth, which is limited by resources available. The growth of Islam isn't constrained by anything other than the cultural practices that lead to them having more children than the rest of the population and the tolerance of the country for immigration. These things could definitely shift to balance the scales but there's no guarantee that happens and there have absolutely been many times in history where a native population has been displaced by the growth of an immigrant group.

Stepping back a bit, Pew expects Islam to overtake Christianity as the dominant world religion in a few decades: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/04/06/why-musli...

Nicholas, is it clear that at any point in the near future, let's say two generations (30-40 years) the Muslim population will not be a majority in the UK? I don't understand why you continue arguing.

Ah, it's the same argument that my mum uses to say that if we don't do something about "the gays" then straight people will disappear, after all "there are a lot more of them than there used to be".

He said "on its way" so you'd want to be looking at the rate of change in the ratio, not the current ratio.

How many children were born in Muslim families in 2024 and how many children were born in Christian families in UK?

Any data on the birthrates of the younger generations being born today?

Yes, I'm sure those 6.5% can out breed the rest of the UK tens of times over. Please stop trying to justify misinformation.

Actually, OP has given information that proves exactly that. Maybe not in one generation, but Lebanon was in a similar situation where the Muslim population, which was firmly a minority in the 1940s, outbred the Christian population and is currently more than the latter.

I don't have a horse in this game - I'm Muslim after all. But I've experienced London pre-immigration boom and post-immigration boom and I definitely prefer the former, like some of my Muslim peers. The fabric of London has already been destroyed, especially when given the fact that London natives have been priced out of their own homes. Given what I've seen firsthand, and what's preached in the mosques of the UK by unleashed and unhinged Imams, the UK is on track to become a Muslim country in 2 or 3 generations.

I found this article from 2017:

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/11/29/europes-grow...

The most recent birth rate stats I can find is 2005-2010 where Muslims have a birth rate of 3.0 while the rest of the country is at 1.8. Estimates say it's more like 2.5 now, but the current overall UK birth rate is only 1.57 from a quick Google.

https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2...

The same article also states that the average age for Muslims is much lower than non-Muslims as of 2016, 28 vs 41 for the UK.

https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2017/...

Yes I know the stats hover around roughly that, which is why I requested you to post those numbers as proof for anyone questioning it. There's also the very concerning fact that the last census conducted was before the immigration boom period (2010 or 2011 iirc), so literally everyone is working on outdated data.

Maybe not in one generation, but in 2-3 generations, the UK will definitely turn Islamic, especially given the exodus of other communities. The irony is that the well-off British are settling in the UAE en masse, a distinctly Islamic country, and driving property prices up there. It's not that much of a concern since local housing is distinctly separated from expat housing.

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