Hacker News Reader

Comment by dismalaf | Hacker News Reader

As a born Albertan, it's not unpopular. The current separatists aren't popular politicians per se, but the idea we should push for a new plan with the feds like Quebec and the idea of separation itself is more popular than ever.

And yes, the people funding it have deep pockets. It's the oil industry. You know what else though? The oil industry bankrolls nearly everything in Alberta. Oil royalties are the reason we don't have PST. It employs hundreds of thousands. That money then supports construction, services, etc...

Anyone who was in Alberta when oil was booming knows exactly what it does for the province.

Also, it's Canada's #1 export. It keeps the dollar at least almost respectable. And billions get taken from Alberta to pay for the welfare of Canadians in other provinces. Alberta's GDP per capita is literally 35% higher than Canada's... And that's with them kneecapping us...

View on HN

Alberta does not pay for the welfare of Canadians in other provinces, it has never paid towards any equalization systems. It has taken billions in debt though, including during COVID when oil flatlined.

The reason Danielle et al were cozying up to US politicians at private events, pushing narratives like embracing America's new direction, isn't for independence or a new federal plan - it's to become the 51st state.

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/federal...

From the horse's mouth...

There's a nice chart at the bottom to show how much each province pays, and which provinces receive equalization payments (it's in red). Alberta pays 50% more per capita than any Eastern province and doesn't receive equalization (obviously).

What's in this for the oil industry? Not sure that oil companies actively working for separatism makes sense. What would be the consequences if it becomes public that they're doing this?

What sort of pull do the oil companies have over NY Times and other media that's reverberating this?

Money pours in when oil prices are high. That's not exactly under Alberta's control. What happens when there's an energy bear market? What is the push towards alternative energy going to do in the long run? Also Alberta is landlocked which would make exporting oil more difficult if Alberta becomes a country. One of PP's talking point (not wrong IMO) was that not having invested in being able to export to non-US customers was forcing Canada to sell oil for lower prices to the US.

EDIT: another random thought is that a lot of labor in Alberta came from out of the province. How is separating going to impact that?

> What's in this for the oil industry?

The ability to sell more oil at a higher price, and to lose less of the revenue as tax.

Low royalties compared to other jurisdictions, with the possibility of them going lower with an "independent" government comprised of their surrogates.

Complete socialization of externalities: for example oil companies are flagrantly ignoring their legal obligations to clean up abandoned sites, and the current government is moving to assume the liability for them. Having that and similar cost offloading happen without the pesky federal courts interfering is worth some investment.

Honestly, the ideal isn't separatism, but for Canada to end interprovincial tariffs, allow Alberta to transport oil to the coast unimpeded.

Europe is basically begging for oil and gas to replace Russia, but Quebec is blocking any pipelines going east.

I totally agree with that. And really that's what the Conservatives were saying and grudgingly the Liberals adopted but we'll see if they can execute.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-canada-oil-trans-moun...

And now we really need a pipeline going east... Our European allies just asked for it at the G7 again yesterday.

I have lived in Alberta for the last thirty years, but I see myself as a Canadian. The “us vs them” you embrace makes no sense to me because that’s not where I draw my circles. Alberta is not being robbed by Canada in the same way that me moving funds from checking to savings isn’t robbing my checking account.

Everyone can draw a circle such that they feel aggrieved. But that’s no great feat, nor is it commendable.

It's just wild to sit in Alberta and push to become a Russian-style oligarchic petrostate.

What makes you think we'd resemble Russia more than, say, Norway?

The general right-wing friendliness of the movement. If not fully Russian-style kleptocratic petrostate then at least American style fascism. If the Alberta conservatives were courting European relationships that would be one thing, but it sure seems like the Alberta and Canadian conservatives in general are fellow travelers with the russo-hungaro-american-etc authoritarian nationalists.

Literally one government ago we elected a leftist party. Separation goes back way further than Danielle Smith.

One government, but two elections and due to a split in the right. And "leftist" is... generous.

There is nothing left of the NDP except the literal communist parties that get like 0.001% of the vote... How is that not leftist?

The Alberta NDP under Notley was a centrist party and its policies were far more aligned with the federal liberals than the federal NDP. Obviously, there has been a change in leadership, but I don't see any reason to believe that the Alberta NDP will be any less centrist under Nenshi.

Having nothing on your left doesn’t make you leftist. If I drive in the right hand lane and there’s nothing on my left, I am not driving in the left hand lane.

> Literally one government ago we elected a leftist party.

Over the last (say) 50 years, how many left-leaning governments have there been in government? It's basically been right-ish since Lougheed in 1971:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_premiers_of_Alberta#Li...

Notley was in for less than four years:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_premiers_of_Alberta_by...

There was plenty of opportunity for a sovereign wealth fund for decades within Alberta and for all of Canada. You’re saying now it’s only on the table that the filthy liberal coastal elites won’t be on the unfair dole?

The unaccountable extra-national corporations who control most of Alberta’s oil production won’t suddenly become more generous and compliant to the needs of Albertans upon separation. You don’t have the balls or the leverage to control them. The province will have less leverage in the long run than before without the other two thirds of Canada’s economy to lever with in trade deals.

The main selling point it seems is to make the rest of Canada suffer as hard as possible. Make no mistake, we absolutely will suffer from the withdrawal of being cut off that black tar we’re addicted to from you. But you’re far more addicted to it than the rest of us are. What comes after?

Alberta has a wealth fund... We've also paid $67 billion to the rest of Canada in equalization payments...

Alberta _had_ a sovereign wealth fund. What happened to it? Equalization payments don’t explain of the collapse of the once huge fund. It sure didn’t buy much local diversification!

You’d think Alberta would be more like Norway already then. Instead you have lifted pickup trucks and tailings ponds. Even more wealth won’t solve the cultural bankruptcy that’s making the province upset enough to consider separation to begin with.

To answer your original question, that’s why I think it’ll be more like Russia.

> Alberta _had_ a sovereign wealth fund. What happened to it?

It's literally still there. You just need to pay attention: https://www.alberta.ca/heritage-savings-trust-fund

It would be bigger without Canada limiting our export ability and taking money from us for equalization though.

Never mind the fact that it shrunk or stagnated in value due to mismanagement for decades. Oil prices are low and you have a single buyer who hoses you already.

Equalization transfers have cost $67 billion TOTAL since 1957. Less than a billion per year. Alberta collects >$25 billion PER YEAR in royalties. Canada isn’t your enemy here. Your province is addicted to a bad deal. You could have built refineries 50 years ago. That’s not possible now. Imagine how much control of those new facilities would go to unaccountable corporations? It wouldn’t be a good deal and the capex is insane.

The federal govt has been supportive, even under Trudeau, for increasing export opportunities. And you think that will get easier, especially through BC, after secession? Why?

Alberta needed to pivot hard away from oil 20 years ago. The US wont need Alberta crude forever.

> You could have built refineries 50 years ago

We literally have refineries in Alberta.

https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/projects/canadian-refinerie...

> Alberta needed to pivot hard away from oil 20 years ago.

Why would you pivot away from something the world needs? Just yesterday at the G7 our European allies asked why we have interprovincial barriers, and requested a pipeline going east and LNG terminal so they can reduce their dependence on Russia.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/it-surprises-us-eu...

Also our economy is more diverse than Ontario or BC. If you were here you'd see that, while oil and gas is a massive windfall, there's a lot of other stuff happening.

https://financialpost.com/globe-newswire/fraser-institute-ne...

See, the thing is, our GDP per capita is 35% higher than Canada's as a whole... We haven't squandered anything. And what do we get from the rest of Canada? Barriers to further development...

Reply on news.ycombinator.com