(Edit: to be clear, these are just proposals the government is exploring at this point.)
> test whether their low-tax haven will survive leaving Canada.
The math already makes sense from a tax perspective. Alberta is a net contributor to the rest of the country, mainly due to resource royalties.
But to me, the question is whether that would still hold when it has to work out trade deals with two neighbouring countries, while small (pop. 5 million), and landlocked.
To be clear, none of this has been enacted. The UCP love to threaten, but those initiatives have not proven to be popular with Albertans.
> But to me, the question is whether that would still hold when it has to work out trade deals with two neighbouring countries, while small (pop. 5 million), and landlocked.
And when Alberta needs to take on all the things that the federal government does for them.
Unpopularity didn't stop them from changing the environmental rules to allow a new coal mine in the eastern slopes of the Rockies. The vast majority of Albertans were opposed and they went ahead anyway.
There is a fund (AIMCo) that the government is proposing to convert in to a general pension plan. So far that has not been popular enough to translate into concrete action.
> All provinces also already run their own police forces.
No, rural policing is handled by the RCMP in 8 provinces. Ontario has the OPP and Quebec has SQ.
> So there has been no movement on this in Alberta.
The idea of the police force is more popular with voters than the idea of the pension plan. So, something could come of it: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-plans-to-cre...
However it appears to not be moving forward anymore.
https://www.benefitsandpensionsmonitor.com/news/industry-new...
The only way this could happen is if the only other country Alberta borders, the United States, strongly supports the separation— strongly enough to break ties with Canada over it that is. And if it does, I suspect Alberta wouldn't be independent very long. All trade and most defense would be with and thanks to the United States. It'd be easy for the USA to annex Alberta.
Usually what you do is prioritize good enough relations to avoid war.
Canada wouldn't keep its arms closed as it looses its most profitable province, connection to its western ocean, and over 11% of its population. Unless the USA vows to defend Alberta, this would certainly mean Canadian troops marching towards Edmonton. It's an existential threat. Looking at the map, it splits Canada in two.
I'm not saying this would mean war. Alberta doesn't have the right geography or military power to fight a war with Canada, unlike, say, the South in the American Civil War. Canadian troops would into Edmonton with little resistance and Alberta would return to Canada.
The only way Alberta could remain independent is if the USA defended it. I don't think this would mean war either— Canada would never go to war with the United States. At most troops from both sides would be positioned on each side of the border, to show they mean business, but Canada wouldn't fire a shot.
Knowing thus, that Alberta depends on them for both trade and defense (reminder, Alberta is land-locked and could only trade with the USA or Canada), and given their recent expansionist rhetoric, would the USA really opt to keep Alberta as an independent country they spent money defending, but get no taxes or land jurisdiction from, or would they expect to eventually incorporate it?
Of the few Canadian troops that exist, most of them are sourced from the West (just like the US, for that matter). It's difficult to prosecute a war without any soldiers.
[1]: https://www.canada.ca/en/army/corporate/ie-map-divisions.htm...
I'll admit it'd be a little cool in the winter but NWT is still a part of Canada.
Since you said looking at a map; almost all of Alberta is treaty land, be a very interesting and long court case before anything comes of it, no matter what our lobbyist Premier wants to do.
Mind you it's not a bastion of first world quality of living.
Switzerland is in a similar position, albeit surrounded by the EU, and they are part of the Schengen region.
Why are countries begging their regions to stay? It’s obviously just a negotiation or political rhetoric. If these movements actually had to take themselves seriously they would immediately dissolve I think.
However they are also, in my opinion, being promoted by state actors who want to weaken Canadian and American national identity. In that way, it's important to not push people into stronger support of the secessionist position.
It will continue to be an energy juggernaut
Northern Alberta would probably not do very good, but southern Alberta would be fine I'm sure
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_irradiance#/media/File:W...
They have cheap gas though, and that could be used in the winter.
But overbuilding can. It's already a fairly common idea.
And Alberta is quite far from big electricity markets. It's far cheaper to put overbuild solar in places with poor sunshine than it is to build a HVDC line.
Plus Alberta will have to compete with Arizona and neighboring states, which have even more sunshine than Alberta does.
This has not been true for years. Oil sands costs are lower than US shale costs: https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-canadian...
The oil sands projects are longer-lived (no need to continually dig new wells), and labour costs have been optimized after the price shock of 2014.
Solar doesn’t compete with oil, it competes with other electricity generation like coal and gas. But even that is not declining yet, globally.
Global coal demand may finally have reached its peak, if we’re being optimistic.
Natural gas and oil demand are still increasing.
There are more ICE cars on the road than ever.
Perhaps you meant the pace of growth is slowing this year. But that has a lot to do with the macro economic situation, with central banks around the world cutting rates as growth slows (and some countries enter recession.) The global economy is slowing, when it rebounds again, so will growth in oil demand.
We're still far from peak demand.
I'm sure the other provinces also wish they had such high paying jobs and contributed more in taxes!
Avg individual income Alberta: 74,237
Avg individual income New Brunswick: 57,336.
I’d expect that even the least wealthy province is a net tax contributor. Equalization is only ~5% of the total budget.