This line of thought doesn't work, because any company approaching AGI might be actively trying to hide that information from regulators and the military. Being the 1st AGI company is actually pretty risky.
There really isn’t any other way to interpret OpenAI’s actions for the last few months.
Sure it could all be a feint to hide their amazing progress. Or it could be what it looks like.
Given the hype cycles of the last 20 years, I’m going with the second.
After generations of boastful over-promising, do you really believe THIS time they are underpromising?