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What Retric said. The first rogue AI waking up will jump into action pretty quickly, even accepting some risk of being stopped by humans, to balance against the risk of other unknown rogue AIs elsewhere expanding faster first.

I agree with this - but sorta comforting? Like this would imply the AI may only do so if they chance of success was like 1% and the other 99% would give away the cards of it and other future AIs.

I know this is all completely hypothetical science-fiction, but I also have trouble seeing the idea that AI would settle for these long deceptive plans for which it has imperfect info.

The real threat to a sleeper AI is other AI.

You wouldn't even need to wait to act. Just pay/bribe people.

With bitcoins