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Comment by qgin | Hacker News Reader

If we’re talking about the singularity robot takeover fast takeoff, maybe that’s true.

But Sam and others have said they see AGI is an uneven process that may not have a clear finish line. The intelligence is spiky and some parts will be superhuman while other parts lag.

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Note that they started saying that recently after their earlier projections didn't pan out. The "uneven process without a clear finish line" angle was Altman recently trying to reset expectations, which means it doesn't contradict OP's thesis that this move towards product is further admission that AGI is going to be much messier than they initially predicted.

That sounds exactly what you would say if you had staked hundreds of millions of dollars and your personal reputation on something you increasingly know isn't possible.

Sounds like excuses

Can't do a singularity robot takeover without robots and you may as well use designer ones.

Dude just says whatever he thinks will make Line Go Up on his accounts. It's basically the only thing he does.

"Make Line Go Up, but without humans" might be the best definition of AGI i've seen so far

Doesn't this contradict the whole idea of AGI? How is it still "general" if it is "spiky" with numerous gaps in its "intelligence"?

It sounds like a CEO moving the goalposts when asked to accomplish something they don't think they can deliver.

Just means by the time you get agreement that every checkbox has been checked, much of the world will already have been dominated by the spiky parks to AI long before.

We'll be living in a mostly AGI-ish world long before it gets declared. People might not even care about declaring it at that point.

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