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Comment by solardev | Hacker News Reader

Programming used to be another skilled trade, before big tech and big money took over everything and corrupted it all.

If there's good money in the trades, what's to stop them from similarly consolidating into national mega corps like every other field? Especially once we start encouraging former tech bros and VCs in, bringing with them their former mindsets?

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A lot of HVAC companies have gone corporate now. Smaller companies are bought out and consolidated, higher paid and experienced personnel are let go, cheaper replacements are brought in that don't have much of a clue how to deal with older established systems, but they will definitely tell you if something is broke after you told them it was broke and offer to sell you a brand new system install that they don't have to troubleshoot with the skills and experience they lack and has a much higher margin than replacing a simple rollout switch or swap a new transformer or control board.

Very low skill trade. Takes a few weeks of training. It is a business ripe for consolidation because of this fact.

4 years to get a license in my state. 2 nights to get the EPA 608 cert which is the only real education you get, the rest is slave labor to get the sign-off for the license. The whole regulatory apparatus was co-opted by current industry to stop 'disruptions', you're going to have to go through the ol boy club to even get a seat at the table and even then they will just regulate your edge away.

This is the thing 'disruptors' don't get about the trades. It's heads I win, tails you lose. They just coopt the laws to ensure the fundamentals don't change.

Installing new systems sure. But diagnosing and repairing problems is far from it. You are mixing gas fired devices, compressors and refrigerants, pressurized water systems, electrical systems, and mechanical systems tieing all together. And just junking all those systems because a $5 part wore out as expected and the owners of the system are lied to that it is unfixable is a colossal waste of money and human labor. All just so corporate owners have more money to scrape off the larger margins of a full install of a new system which are going to break down just the same in a few years again.

I’m a software engineer. I’m over 50 and experienced a difficult time getting a new position after my last one evaporated.

I am now working as a “programmer” for CNC systems. (That means I draw shapes in CAD, lay them out on steel plates, and post those to the machines doing the work.) We have torch, plasma, and laser cutters, metal forming (really just bending), and a programmable drill.

The tasks involved in completing the processing after my work are: fetch the metal plate (warehouse crane, forklift), place the plate (must be aligned and at the correct origin), collect the cut parts onto pallets (organized by customer), operate forming machines, and/or feed beams into the drill.

Those tasks don’t exactly require skill. Because I’m a software guy, I’m always looking for opportunities for automation. We’re about as close to fully automated as you can get without advanced robots (requiring dexterity, observation, etc.)

I guess my point is that there’s little room for former tech bro/VC “innovation” in my particular industry. I can see how it’s similar in many trades. They don’t necessarily require “skills” because anyone can learn quickly how to do them. Anyone but today’s robots.

Fishing used to be a skilled trade in the rivers, seas and the oceans until giant ships operated by multinational companies took most of the market share and the fish people could sell. You got the point, small ones (at least most) don't stand a much chance nor are they efficient.

Now these industries should only be treated as a hobby or something that is expected already like knowing English language for writing corporate emails.

Oh great, can't wait for a 2 week bootcamped electrician to burn my house down.

If you can't wire a house after 2 weeks of education, they were going to burn your house down anyway (especially if you are using AFCI). It's like one simple and highly redundant 300 page book of information at worst.

I will never understand why electricians are always held to this kind of standard and reverence. Framing my house took 10x the amount of study and learning than it did wiring it, and that included me doing a mains underground power extension and all of the mains meter and breaker.

I have to assume a huge amount of it is national and local regulations, which seem to change every freakin year. I read relevant sections a decade ago re: outlets with no ground(has to be on gfci breaker) and wiring a bathroom(has to be on separate circuit). Now you're apparently not allowed to put outlets on the side of or back of kitchen islands? Just random things like this.

I couldn't imagine having to keep up with all of it. I'd guess many don't...

atleast for general contractors - Its a fundamentally different business model. Little growth, tiny margins, low fixed costs and tremendous requirement for trust and quality assurance.

Unions. IBEW for electrical workers, for example.

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