Q2 GDP is estimated to come in at 2.3%, aka no recession: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
This estimate was produced today (May 8), and represents increasing GDP growth vs. the previous estimate
This estimate was produced today (May 8), and represents increasing GDP growth vs. the previous estimate
The model is likely based on fundamental economic factors and rational decision making. The latter is why Q1 ended up with -0.3% growth. You could call this the Trump effect.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow/archives
This wild of a swing makes me re-assess depending on this data for anything.