Comment by jghn | Hacker News Reader

Comment by jghn | Hacker News Reader

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I both agree and have been worried that this is overly reductive.

As far as I can tell, literally nothing that I buy regularly is directly sourced from China. Or anywhere other than the US & neighboring countries. The vast majority of my groceries are locally sourced. And the vast majority of the rest come from expected regions, for instance San Marzano tomatoes from Italy. I do not regularly buy clothes, children's supplies, electronics, etc. Sure, I'll buy them once in a while but not with any regularity. My understanding is that the classic paper products famous from COVID shortages are made in the US.

So with that in mind what you say is 100% true, at least for me. But I'm not so sure. Who makes the containers that my local milk is put into? Who makes the cans that my canned goods are using? What meta-products are being consumed by the local industries, such as the ones making my TP? I have a feeling the answer is scarier than it'd seem on the surface. But I don't know.

Where do the farmers that grow your food get their fertilizer and fuel from? Or the electronics and hydraulics in their tractors?

That's exactly my point.

In other words, the threat model people should be worrying about isn't "bare shelves due to no goods from China to stock them" but rather "bare shelves because the entities who make the goods to stock them are missing critical components". And that's much harder for someone to predict what impact it'll have.

I imagine that my daily life is very skewed away from direct impact from a Chinese embargo relative to other US citizens. And even still, I'm pretty sure it's going to be a problem.

Daily life is very skewed away from understanding how everything works. Supply chains, power grids, the Internet, large-scale farming - these are all complete mysteries to most people. They see the results but they have no idea how the sausage is made. (Or shipped.)

It's one reason why this is happening at all. People not only don't know what makes a lightbulb turn on, they can't imagine the complexity of a power grid and how it's stabilised.

They don't have the first idea how a phone works, or how much science, engineering, and fundamental research went into making it work.

When they don't know any of this, they can't imagine any of it having a serious problem.

Most fertilizer and fuel used in US agriculture is domestically produced. We do import some fertilizer from China. For fertilizers manufactured using natural gas as a feed stock, the US is well positioned to expand production because we have cheaper and more abundant supplies.

If people can’t buy Chinese tomatoes, what kind of tomatoes do you think they’re going to buy m? the same ones that you do!

That means the prices of your tomatoes are going to go up!

No one is going to be immune from these pricing increases from the tariffs.

Where do I buy Chinese tomatoes?

My best guess would be China

You're largely making the point I was raising.

For your specific example though, I'm not so sure. As a counterexample, I buy my eggs direct from a local farm, not in a store. Neither the ease of availability nor the price of the eggs I buy have changed one iota over the last several months. And yet I see local friends posting pictures of empty egg shelves here and there on Facebook. My takeaway has been that the average person has no idea they can buy goods outside of a grocery store.

So back to your point, I buy most of my tomatoes direct from local farmers. Unless people start buying from *them* it is fine.

HOWEVER, if those local farmers can't get parts for their farm equipment or something like that, I'm just as screwed.

> My takeaway has been that the average person has no idea they can buy goods outside of a grocery store.

I’m sorry, but most people live in cities or towns with their only reasonable access to food being via stores. It is one of the wonderful things that civilization has produced and I’m here for it.

I live in a city. Yet what I said is true.

Most people don't buy from small local farmers.

When it comes to eggs and vegetables there are opportunities for city farms. So there might be some of that.

But meat animals are much harder to "grow".

i grow a couple hundred pounds of tomatoes in my backyard every year. I'd happily sell some to my neighbors.

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