Trump's second term has given the world a wake-up call. Although Trump will likely be gone in four years, the MAGA movement could be long-lived and always four years or less away from taking over again. Even if Trump backs down on tariff's and expansionism during his own term, trust in the U.S. as a military ally and economic partner won't be restored quickly or easily.
What we're now seeing is world military alliances and the economy rewiring themselves, not to be subservient vassals of a hostile U.S., as Trump hopes, but to bypass the U.S.. If trade barriers around the U.S. are going to come and go in an unpredictable manner, then business will respond by building outside of that uncertainty. Manufacture of some low-end products may be onshored to the U.S., but only to meet domestic U.S. demand if and where that is high enough. It doesn't make sense to move manufacturing inside a region with unpredictable trade barriers if it's going to serve a global market.
Take a look at the election results in Canada. What was expected to be an easy majority win for the Conservatives just a few months ago came out as near-majority for the Liberals. Both parties campaigned on anti-Trump measures that include increasing East-West trade/infrastructure within Canada, diversification of the economy to rely more on Asian and European markets, and reduced spending on defence products from the U.S.. This is long-term policy that will make Canada less vulnerable to future MAGA'ruptions, even long after Trump is gone. Trump could do a 180 tomorrow, but the impact of what he's already done will last for decades at the very least.
If you’re not an American, you don’t get to use bad American logic. ;)
- Sir Michael, Tenet
We see you.
But sure, if the US goes through a decade of purges and de-MAGAfication, it may rebuild its image.
Respectfully my friend, here's "a logic", or perhaps here's "my logic", but willing it to be "the logic" simply because you feel so is actually (ironically) incredibly American in tone, as it dismisses rational discourse.
The majority of Americans who did actually vote for Trump are responsible for him. The ossified, corrupted justice system that failed to prosecute him in a timely manner is responsible for him. The dark money that breathes momentum behind both the Democrat and Republican parties is responsible. To insinuate that the average individual American--the one who is tired of MAGA antics but has minimal individual agency in the situation, red or blue--is responsible? Well that's like you yelling at customer service agent for the policy decisions made at the executive suite. You're not just preaching to the choir, you're persecuting it.
Here's what we all can do: frustrated tired Americans can keep trying to push the eject button at home, with elections and purchasing power. Foreigners can quit buying American and lure their intellectual talent back home.
If you dislike how the world works so fundamentally, you can either find the agency to control it, or you can stop being a bitch and recognize that it's outside your sphere of influence and focus on building a life that you can control.
Not voting was a vote for trump. Low turnout benefits trump. Americans had the choice between trump and a black woman, Americans chose trump.
Americans are so stupid and refuse to look at ourselves in a fair light. It's so dumb and the rest of the world is laughing at us.
"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing, after they've tried everything else." What this quote means is that Americans falsely believe we're exceptional and different when in reality we aren't, but we'll waste a ton of time/resources before we admit it.
77M people voted for him and 81M otherwise eligible voters, by not being registered to vote or by not voting, indicated they were at least OK with him winning. That's about 63% of the voting public.
Ah the favorite pastime of the Left - blaming the people. In fact not voting indicates only one thing - NOT being OK with any of them winning, it's a legitimate and very important choice to have, too bad neither of the losers is willing to draw any conclusions.
Of course it doesn't. In a swing state, a non vote or third-party vote means endorsing the outcome. The fact that there wasn't a perfect choice is at the root of compromise that makes for a democracy. (And in a non-swing state, unless someone submitted a blank ballot, it generally means laziness.)
Electorally, non-voters are incredibly safe to ignore. They rarely convert from non-voting to voting. If you're an elected and have a non-voting demographic, you can always make political hay by transferring resources from them to your voters.
To clarify, I said half of voters this election turned out against Trump.
I am posting an article that states there was disenfranchisement on a scale large enough to tip the election. You can find other sources than just this article.
After the Trump tariffs in the first term, US sales of Soy Beans to China never recovered. They switched to Brazil. What if the rest of the world just start buying fewer treasury bills (or paying less for the return) from now on? It is possible this could be worse for the USA than other developed countries.
Trump is screwing you over and he's doing it publicly. He's selling meme coins and selling your government. He dismantling the US for his personal profit and you are cheering.
No but we are so far apart on foundational beliefs about the state of the country over the last 20ish years that it really isn't worthwhile for most of us to discuss this anymore.
One side says we're saving the country, the other side thinks we're destroying it [another side thinks the first two sides are both crazy]. It's time to see who's right.
Jobs Down. GDP Down. Consumption Down. Inflation Up.
If you’re still defending this, you’re either a grifter or a victim of a cult.
Which one are you?
Bond market says what now?
China has spent every day since 2016 preparing for this war. We, who launched it, didn't even bother to stockpile. While it's true the Chinese economy will likely suffer more short-term pain, Xi doesn't have midterms. Beyond his tools as a dictator, he has narrative on his side: we started the trade war. People are generally willing to take a lot of pain when they feel they're being fucked with. (Exhibit A: Trump.)
So yes, China's economy will probably contract more than America's. But there is a reason Trump is already blinking.
China can't even feed itself. They couldn't open the Red Sea. Their non-US trading partners are not wealthy. They have a lot to lose (hence the decade long prep).
You are very correct about the population dynamics though. China is united, the US has very smart people like yourself in extreme opposition to the trade war.