It's going to get worse.
This is actually buoyed by buying ahead of the tariffs, and the tariffs themselves haven't had a chance to take effect yet.
The economic nosedive is just beginning.
This is actually buoyed by buying ahead of the tariffs, and the tariffs themselves haven't had a chance to take effect yet.
The economic nosedive is just beginning.
Just because it's someone's profession doesn't mean is is or should be everyone's profession.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" is true for me, for you, for the person who quoted it above, and for the median person reading it.
The fact that some people make a living off of attempting to beat the market, with...mixed success, doesn't mean that the quote is false.
(And in general, the market sentiment seems to be "There's a decent chance this all just blows over", so shorting is likely as ill-advised as plowing in long, unless you happen to have better insight into the decision-making in the white house than the average participant)
Actually, the way the report works is the opposite. The increase in purchasing ahead of the tariffs counted against GDP growth, in terms of how the numbers were calculated in this report.
To be clear: Trump is a disaster, and I disagree with his approach.
Most of the value of an iPhone is recorded as American GDP because American IP and software went into it, Apple is keeping a lot of the price for the phone, and only sending a bit off to China for assembly (and a larger bit off to South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan for components that China is assembling). What remains is still a lot of American GDP.
A small business who is contracting China to make the thing that they then sell is also generating a lot of GDP. Yes, they send some percent off to China to make the thing, but a majority is GDP generated here in the USA (the small business does the design, marketing, sales, etc...). If they go belly up because of the trade war (very likely, since no one else can make their thing, and before China developed this capability, making the thing wasn't even possible!), that GDP is gone, the people that small business was employing are unemployed.
The increased purchases should not decrease American GDP, unless consumers are buying directly from China using Temu and are not buying at Walmart.
If you take that money you would have spent buying something in the US that has imported parts (like its assembly), and instead say go out and by a DJI drone on TEMU, yes, you've decreased GDP. If you simply have no money to buy anything because DOGE decided to cut your federal job, then that would also decrease GDP.
I was jumping ahead too quickly to overall economic activity (which is going to drop).
GDP is only calculated that way because the numbers for consumer, investment and government spending includes spending on imports, so it has to be subtracted out in order to get only domestic spending.
The same guy who got re-elected? Early term approval ratings mean less than nothing.