Ask HN: What tech prediction do you think most people are wrong about?
-LLMs reaching human-level reasoning within 2 years
-Self-driving taxis taking over major cities by 2027
-AI replacing most programming jobs within 5 years
-AI personalities becoming household names
-AGI arriving before 2030
-Apple Vision Pro doing for AR what iPhone did for smartphones (despite its current flop)
-Voice interfaces becoming the primary way we interact with computers
-The end of traditional cloud infrastructure as serverless takes over
-Code becoming mostly AI-written with humans just reviewing
-Vibe coding replacing traditional coding
-The four-day workweek will become standard across most tech companies by 2027
-Tech regulation will force the breakup of at least one major tech company
-Quantum computing will break most current encryption by 2030
Some of these are things I could see happening (or are already beginning to happen), but others seem exaggerated to me.
What tech prediction do you think most people have totally wrong and why?
I'm not looking for generic tech pessimism; I'm more interested in specific predictions you think won't pan out and why.